top of page
Home: Text

BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

Home: Text
Home: Blog2
Search

MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #33

Writer's picture: NCHurricane2009NCHurricane2009

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...UPDATE...THURSDAY JULY 4 2024 3:22 PM EDT...

Infrared (left) and visible (right) satellite image of Hurricane Beryl now in the northwestern Caribbean Sea as of 1746Z:

The following are updates on Hurricane Beryl since the 3 AM full update published below:

(1) Intensity update... as the hurricane's center passed just south of the Cayman Islands wind shear weakened the hurricane further... and now as the hurricane pulls away from the islands it is now a top-end category 2 with 110 mph maximum sustained winds. However this intensity is still dangerous... and more recent satellite frames suggest the hurricane is become a litle better organized as the shear levels begin to decrease due to the nearby upper trough to the northwest weakening into a pair of upper vortices. Therefore Beryl may re-intensify on its way to the northeastern Yucatan peninsula in the next 24 hours.

(2) After begin overran by Beryl's north side early this morning... weather conditions in the Cayman Islands have been improving through the late morning and early afternoon as the hurricane pulls away

(2) Track update... the hurricane's track has been more toward the north... resulting in the following changes to short-term impacts.

(3) Coastal surf remains possible for the southwestern Cuba coast... and heavy rain bands are now overspreading western Cuba due to the more north position of the hurricane.

(4) Rainfall potential for northern Belize for later on has ended... however some surf may still reach the northern Belize coast.

(5) Interests across the Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico should be finishing preparations for Hurricane Beryl by tonight... due to the more north position of the hurricane the area most likely to see life-threatening wind and storm surge shifted toward the island of Cozumel and northern Quintana Roo coast just west and southwest of the island.


...THURSDAY JULY 4 2024 3:00 AM EDT...

See Beryl section below for more information on the still strong hurricane that is expected to affect the Cayman Islands... Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico... and then likely northeastern Mexico and south Texas in the longer range. See area of interest #10 section below for an update on the tropical wave of low pressure following behind Beryl which could induce another round of inclement weather across Jamaica... the Cayman Islands... and the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday through Monday. Elsewhere... a surge of dry Saharan air is keeping the Atlantic tropics calm in the wake of these two systems.


MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL... The center of Beryl continues west-northwest on a course that allowed it to pass just offshore of the south Jamaica coast... and overnight the north side of Beryl will sweep across the Cayman Islands where preparations for the hurricane should have been completed by now. The ongoing west-northwest track is a combination of the westward push in the lower-levels of the atmosphere provided by the expansive Atlantic surface ridge and northward tug of an upper trough to the northwest sandwiched between the southern US upper ridge and tropical upper ridge axis that Beryl has been under. The upper trough has continued to provide enough shear to slowly weaken the hurricane... however as of 11 PM EDT it remains a ferocious low-end category 4 hurricane with 130 mph maximum sustained winds. Through 72 hours the frontal systems that will cross North America are expected to be too far north to influence Beryl with their ridge weaknesses... instead the respective surface ridges that build behind the fronts (under the back convergence zone of the associated upper troughs) end up shifting east and adding to the west side of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. During this same timeframe the nearby cold core upper trough weakens to into a pair of upper vortices due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... with the western of the two vortices retrograding westward around the southern US upper ridge and eventually into Mexico. As such Beryl will be chasing the retrograding upper vortex and has a high chance of interacting with the vortex east side during the 72-hour window. Therefore the forecast track through that time still has a northward slant as Beryl will be strong/tall enough to be dragged by the east side of the upper vortex. After 72 hours a northward turn across the western Gulf of Mexico is anticipated as deep-layer southerly flow ensues ahead of a central North America surface frontal system and associated upper trough. On a final note regarding the track forecast... due to Beryl being slightly north of my previous forecast track my updated one is adjusted in that direction.


Regarding intensity... Beryl does not have the classic apperance of a category 4 hurricane as its eye remains cloud-filled and the outer cloud shield has been lopsided to the northeast of the eye due to the ongoing shear imparted by the nearby upper trough. Although Beryl has continued to weaken from the shear... multiple aircraft recon passes have measured Beryl holding on to category 4 strength as late as 11 PM EDT earlier this evening. In the next 24 hours the shear relaxes as the upper trough breaks into the pair of upper vortices... and there may already be signs that the shear is dropping as more recent satellite frames since 0400Z show the small core thunderstorms becoming more circular and symmmetric around the center. Because Beryl is stronger than the previous forecast my updated intensity forecast is increased... however for the next 24 hours I still call for only gradual re-intensification as Beryl may still be close enough to the western upper vortex to experience some southerly shear. Between 24 and 48 hours weakening is anticipated as Beryl moves across the Yucatan peninsula... however my updated track forecast keeps Beryl over land for a shorter period of time and so I now forecast Beryl to enter the Gulf still as a hurricane. Once Beryl emerges over western Gulf of Mexico waters there are a variety of scenarios possible regarding intensity... one extreme for example is that Beryl is disrputed enough by the Yucatan such that it struggles to re-established an organized inner core... with the storm also struggling with southerly shear induced by a combination of the upper vortex to the west and incoming central North America upper trough. The other extreme (the worst case scenario) is that Beryl re-develops an organized inner core while at the same time the upper vortex weakens enough to no longer shear the storm and the central North America upper trough not getting too close such that the southerly flow ahead of the upper trough can actually enhance the northern outflow of the small storm... which would result in rapid re-intensification once Beryl is in the western Gulf of Mexico. My long-range intensity forecast splits the difference between these two ideas... however because the shorter-term intensity forecast is already increased even taking the middle road idea places Beryl near or at major hurricane status (category 3+) once it makes its landfall on the North American western Gulf of Mexico coast... somewhere in the vicnity of the Texas/Mexico border region (noting in the prior paragraph my updated track forecast was nudged north... so for now I prefer to forecast a north of the border Texas landfall).


After being slammed by Beryl's north side Jamaica is seeing improving weather conditions as the hurricane pulls away... next in line is are the Cayman Islands where interests should remain sheltered in place until the severe and dangerous weather that will roll in this early morning (coastal storm surge and damaging winds) ends late today (on the advice of local government officials... media... etc). Noting surf will reach the south-facing coast of Cuba within the next 24 hours. Interests across the Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico should be finishing preparations for Hurricane Beryl in the next 24 hours as weather conditions will go downhill by Friday... the area most likely to see life-threatening wind and storm surge on the peninsula will be east-central Quintana Roo. For northern Belize... coastal surf and some rainfall produced by Beryl's southern bands cannot be ruled out. Interests across Tamaulipas and the southwestern half of the Texas coast should be monitoring the progress of Beryl over the next couple of days... and be ready to make the appropriate preparations this weekend should the situation later warrant.


Update as of 2 AM EDT... Beryl has weakened slightly but remains a dangerous top-end category 3 hurricane with 125 mph maximum sustained winds.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (0000Z Jul 4)... 130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered west of Jamaica and south-southeast of the Cayman Islands at 18N-79.2W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 5)... 140 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered in the northwestern Caribbean south of the western tip of Cuba and east of the Yucatan peninsula at 19.8N-85W

IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 6)... 85 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered on the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula at 21.5N-89W

IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 7)... 100 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at 24N-93.8W

IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 8)... 110 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the western Gulf of Mexico and just east of the Texas/Mexico border at 26N-96W

IOH 120 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 9)... 100 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered inland over southeast Texas and just north of Rockport at 29.2N-96.5W

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT****************************

5-Day Position (0000Z Jul 9)... 45 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered inland over far south Texas at 26.7N-98.7W


AREA OF INTEREST #10... The tropical wave of low pressure following behind Hurricane Beryl has crossed the Lesser Antilles and entered the eastern Caribbean Sea. The wave's northwestern thunderstorm bands over the last 24 hours appear to have generated a mid-level spin that raced west across the Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean... while the low-level clouds have an arc pattern that suggest a surface wave located further east with no closed circulation. For my updated track forecast in the outlook below... I initialized the surface wave's maximum vorticity to be toward the mid-level spin rather than underneath it... in the vicnity of 14N-64W. This system is expected to continue west-northwest under the same expansive surface ridge that is also steering Beryl... and share the same favorable upper-level environment of expansive tropical upper ridging (low shear/outflow) that Beryl is experiencing. Therefore the updated forecast philosophy is to show increasing odds of tropical cyclone formation with time as this system moves west-northwest across the Caribbean Sea... Yucatan peninsula... then western Gulf of Mexico. However I have lowered my peak odds of tropical cyclone formation to 30% as the current structure of a mid-level spin not aligned with the surface wave is a less organized situation compared to when the wave was actually better organized a couple of days ago (around July 1). Plus there is some uncertainty in how the upper trough currently northwest of Beryl behaves in the long range. As discussed in the above Beryl section... the trough weakens to a pair of vortices with Beryl passing between them. However a part of the eastern vortex could later break off into a small vortex that retrogrades southwest around the southern US upper ridge and potentially into the path of this area of interest... with vortex potentially disrupting this area of interest by blocking upper outflow and/or shearing it. A final note regarding tropical cyclone formation odds... my day 5 (120 hour) odds are lower than the 30% peak as landfall with the Yucatan could be a setback to any development that does occur before the landfall.


Primary concern with this wave is it could produce bands of vigorous thunderstorms across Jamaica... the Cayman Islands... and then the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico from Saturday thorugh Monday... all of which are areas that are currently dealing with or will soon be dealing with Hurricane Beryl recovery efforts. A round of nuisance weather here would add insult to injury.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 5)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Caribbean Sea near 15N-71.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 6)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south-southwest of Jamaica near 16N-78.5W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 7)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southwest of the Cayman Islands near 17.5N-83W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 8)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Quintana Roo coast of Yucatan peninsula near 19N-87.8W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 10)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southwestern Gulf of Mexico offshore of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula coast near 21.5N-91.5W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 10%

Formation chance through 7 days... 20%


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


1200Z (Jul 3) CMC Model Run...

**For Major Hurricane Beryl... weakens to a compact tropical storm while passing south of the Cayman Islands over next 18 hours with landfall on east coast of Yucatan peninsula at 48 hours... emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwest corner of the Yucatan at 60 hours as a weak tropical storm... continues northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall on the Tamaulipas coast at 108 hours as a re-strengthened tropical storm/minimal hurricane... continues northwest further inland and parallel to the Texas/Mexico border and dissipates by 150+ hours

**For area of interest #10... develops into a tropical low southeast of Jamaica at 48 hours but then re-weakens to a wave southwest of Jamaica by 66 hours... wave not shown to develop beyond that timeframe


1200Z (Jul 3) ECMWF Model Run...

**For Major Hurricane Beryl... makes landfall just north of the Belize/Mexico border at 42 hours then emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwestern Yucatan peninsula by 60 hours... makes landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border at 114 hours... continues northwest further inland and parallel to the Texas/Mexico border and dissipates by 144+ hours

**For area of interest #10... no development shown


1800Z (Jul 3) GFS Model Run...

**For Major Hurricane Beryl... makes landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula at 39 hours and then emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwestern part of the peninsula at 51 hours as a weakened tropical storm... re-intensifies into a hurricane over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico which then makes landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border at 105 hours... continues north-northwest further inland while crossing the border and into far southern Texas where it then weakens to a remnant low near 29N-99.5W at 150 hours... due to a fujiwhara interaction with area of interest #10 approaching from the southeast the remnant low then swings west across the Texas/Mexico border and dissipates over northeast Mexico (and just west of the border) at 165+ hours

**For area of interest #10... develops into a southwestern Gulf of Mexico tropical low near 21.5N-94W at 153 hours... tropical low drifts northwest to 22.5N-96W through 168 hours


1200Z (Jul 3) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For Major Hurricane Beryl... makes landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula at 48 hours and then emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwestern part of the peninsula at 60 hours... curves increasingly north across the western Gulf of Mexico and makes landfall on the Texas coast by 108 hours as an intense tropical cyclone... transitions into a remnant frontal cyclone that accelerates north-northeast across the east-central US with the center of the remnant cyclone reaching the Indiana/Ohio border at 168 hours

**For area of interest #10... no development shown

36 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All

Comentarios


bottom of page