*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...WEDNESDAY JULY 3 2024 5:03 AM EDT...
See Beryl section below for more information on the still strong hurricane that is expected to affect Jamaica... the Cayman Islands... Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico... and then possibly northeastern Mexico and south Texas in the longer range. See area of interest #10 section below for an update on the tropical wave of low pressure following behind Beryl which will be providing another round of inclement weather across the southern Lesser Antilles in the immediate wake of Beryl later today... with this wave also potentially bringing another round of vigorous weather across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands by Friday and Saturday.
Elsewhere... the tropical wave of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic has ingested dry Saharan air... and is not an area of interest for tropical development at this time.
MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL... Beryl is now barreling west-northwest toward the general direction of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands... with the westward push in the lower-levels of the atmosphere provided by the expansive Atlantic surface ridge and northward tug of an upper trough to the northwest sandwiched between the southern US upper ridge and tropical upper ridge axis that Beryl has been under (the upper trough is a merger between previous western Caribbean upper vorticity... an upper vortex that was near the Bahamas... and the south part of the upper trough that recently departed eastern Canada). The upper trough has provided enough shear to slowly weaken the hurricane from category 5 to a still intense category 4. Through 96 hours the frontal systems that will cross North America are expected to be too far north to influence Beryl with their ridge weaknesses... instead the respective surface ridges that build behind the fronts (under the back convergence zone of the associated upper troughs) end up shifting east and adding to the west side of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. During this same timeframe the nearby cold core upper trough weakens to into a pair of upper vortices due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... with the western of the two vortices retrograding westward around the southern US upper ridge and eventually into Mexico. As such Beryl will be chasing the retrograding upper vortex... and because the hurricane has been moving slightly faster to the west than previous projections there is a higher chance of the hurricane interacting with the vortex east side during the 96-hour window. For the short-term have adjusted the forecast track southward as Beryl has recently turned more west and less north on a trajectory that allows the core of the hurricane to pass just south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands... however for 72 and 96 hours my forecast points are nudged northward due to potential interaction with the east side of the upper vortex which would be able to steer Beryl as Beryl would still be a strong/tall system during that timeframe. Between 96 and 120 hours... once Beryl is in the western Gulf of Mexico... an increase in the track's north angle is currently anticipated as deep-layer southerly flow ensues ahead of a central North America surface frontal system and associated upper trough.
Regarding intensity... instead of weakening from an eye wall replacement cycle the hurricane has instead been weakened by some shear being imparted by the nearby upper trough. The hurricane is certainly less organized than 24 hours ago as thunderstorm canopy has becoming increasingly lopsided to the east side of the eye and the eye itself has become cloud-filled... all effects of the shear. Therefore despite being on a course that keeps the center offshore of Jamaica in the next 24 hours... the intensity forecast calls for additional weakening over the next 24 hours. The shear relaxes after that time once the upper trough breaks into the pair of upper vortices... however I call for only gradual re-intensification from 24 to 48 hours as Beryl may still be close enough to the western vortex to experience some southerly shear. Between 48 and 72 hours there is anticipation that the passage across the Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico should cause Beryl to lose hurricane status as the circulation of Beryl remains compact... and thus is more susceptible to being overwhelmed by the size of the peninsula. Once the storm emerges over western Gulf of Mexico waters there are a variety of scenarios possible regarding intensity... one extreme for example is that Beryl is disrputed enough by the Yucatan such that it struggles to re-established an organized inner core... with the storm also struggling with southerly shear induced by a combination of the upper vortex to the west and incoming central North America upper trough. The other extreme (the worst case scenario) is that Beryl re-develops an organized inner core while at the same time the upper vortex weakens enough to no longer shear the storm and the central North America upper trough not getting too close such that the southerly flow ahead of the upper trough can actually enhance the northern outflow of the small storm... which would result in rapid re-intensification once Beryl is in the western Gulf of Mexico. For now my long-range intensity forecast splits the difference between these two ideas... for now calling for Beryl to re-develop into a category 2 hurricane on its way to the Texas/Mexico border region after departing the Yucatan.
Heavy rainfall across Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Repbulic)... in addition to coastal surf and gusty winds along the south coast of the island... should reduce throughout the day as Beryl pulls away. Preparations for hurricane force wind and coastal surf... along with flooding potential from heavy rain... should be completed across Jamaica within the next 6 hours. Similar preparations across the Cayman Islands should be completed by late this afternoon. Noting surf will reach the south-facing coast of Cuba within the next 24 hours. Interests across the Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico should begin preparing now for hurricane-force damaging gusty winds and coastal surf expeced by Friday along with high rainfall totals that could cause flash flooding. During this timeframe less severe coastal surf and some rainfall produced by Beryl's southern bands will be possible for northern Belize. Interests across Tamaulipas and southern Texas should be monitoring the progress of Beryl over the next couple of days... and be ready to make the appropriate preparations this weekend should the situation later warrant.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0600Z Jul 3)... 145 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered just south of Haiti at 16.3N-73.5W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 4)... 115 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered west-southwest of Jamaica and south-southeast of the Cayman Islands at 17.5N-79.8W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 5)... 125 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered offshore of Quintana Roo at 19.5N-86.2W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 6)... 70 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the Gulf of Mexico just offshore of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula coast at 21N-91W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 7)... 95 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at 23N-94W
IOH 120 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 8)... 105 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the western Gulf of Mexico and just southeast of the Texas/Mexico border at 25N-97W
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT****************************
5-Day Position (0000Z Jul 7)... 70 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered on the northern Tamaulipas coast at 25N-97.5W
AREA OF INTEREST #10... The tropical wave of low pressure following behind Hurricane Beryl has continued to move across the open central Atlantic. The northwestern side of the wave's swirl... located further away from dry Saharan air... has seen an increase in thunderstorm bands. The updated track in the outlook below has been adjusted northwestward with an increased likelihood the wave develops a better-defined center closer to the new bands of thunderstorm activity. This system is expected to continue west-northwest under the same expansive surface ridge that is also steering Beryl... and share the same upper-level environment of expansive tropical upper ridging (low shear/outflow) that Beryl is experiencing. Therefore the updated forecast philosophy is to show increasing odds of tropical cyclone formation with time as this system moves west-northwest across the southern Lesser Antilles then Caribbean Sea... generally toward the part of the Atlantic basin where dry Saharan air concentrations tend to be less. Noting the CMC and GFS models are back to developing this wave... just doing so now in the longer range once this system indeed does move into lower concentrations of dry Saharan air. Thus my longer range odds of tropical cyclone formation are not lowered from my previous 50%. Do not support peak odds higher than 50% in this update as there is some uncertainty in how the upper trough currently norhtwest of Beryl behaves in the long range. As discussed in the above Beryl section... the trough weakens to a pair of vortices with Beryl passing between them. However as shown by the recent 0000Z GFS... a part of the eastern vortex later breaks off into a small vortex that retrogrades southwest around the southern US upper ridge and potentially into the path of this area of interest... with vortex potentially disrupting this area of interest by blocking upper outflow and/or shearing it.
Noting the thunderstorm bands of this tropical wave will be rotating through the southern Lesser Antilles and over Hurricane Beryl recovery efforts later today... bringing some gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Interests across Jamaica and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of this wave for a potential second round of inclement weather in the wake of Beryl... which would occur in the Friday/Saturday timeframe if the current forecast track for this area of interest holds.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 4)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean Sea west of the southern Lesser Antilles near 12.5N-63W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 5)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Caribbean Sea near 14N-70.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 6)... 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south of Jamaica near 15.5N-77.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 7)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south of the western Cayman Islands near 17.5N-81.2W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 8)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south of western Cuba and west of the Cayman Islands near 19.5N-84W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 AM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 10%
Formation chance through 7 days... 20%
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jul 2) CMC Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... center moves into the southwest coast of Jamaica at 30 hours and then passes just south of the Cayman Islands at 42 hours... makes landfall just north of the Belize/Mexico border at 66 hours... emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwestern Yucatan peninsula while weakening to a tropical storm at 78 hours... re-intensifies into a hurricane that makes landfall on the Tamaulipas coast at 126 hours... inland dissipation over central Mexico forecast near 23.5N-102.5W at 150 hours
**For area of interest #10... develops into a tropical low south-southeast of Jamaica at 72 hours which then passes just south of the Cayman Islands at 102 hours... makes landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula at 126 hours which then proceeds to move west-northwest into the Bay of Campeche by 144 hours after having weakened to a tropical wave... the tropical wave curves northwest into the Texas/Mexico border through 168 hours
1200Z (Jul 2) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... center passes just south of Jamaica at 30 hours and then bends more west in track while passing south of the Cayman Islands through 42 hours... makes landfall at the Belize/Mexico border at 72 hours and then emerges into the Bay of Campeche from the west coast of the Yucatan peninsula while weakening to a tropical storm at 90 hours... re-intensifies into a compact hurricane which makes landfall on the southern Tamaulipas coast at 144 hours... rapid dissipation inland shown shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
0000Z (Jul 3) GFS Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... center passes just south of Jamaica at 18 hours and then just south of the Cayman Islands at 30 hours... makes landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula at 20N latitude at 57 hours and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwest corner of the Yucatan by 69 hours while still a hurricane... as a potentially intense hurricane makes landfall at the Texas/Mexico border at 120 hours... weakens to a south Texas inland tropical storm near 29N-99.5W by 150 hours... while undergoing a fujiwhara interaction with area of interest #10 approaching from the southeast the continuously weakening tropical storm drifts south into the inland part of the Texas/Mexico border through 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... develops into a Gulf of Mexico tropical low just offshore of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula at 147 hours... the tropical low develops into a compact tropical storm through 168 hours while moving northwest to 25.5N-94W
1800Z (Jul 3) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... center passes just south of Jamaica by 30 hours then the Cayman Islands by 42 hours... makes landfall on the northeast corner of the Yucatan peninsula by 72 hours and emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the north-central coast of the Yucatan by 78 hours... while still a potentially intense hurricane makes landfall over south Texas at 138 hours after which time it curves more north in track... weakens to an inland tropical storm while pushing into central Texas by 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
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