*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...TUESDAY JULY 2 2024 2:19 AM EDT...
See Beryl section below for more information on the intense hurricane that is expected to cross the Caribbean Sea and Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico after it pummeled the southern Lesser Antilles. See area of interest #10 section below for an update on the tropical wave of low pressure following behind Beryl which has moved into the central tropical Atlantic while for now becoming notably less active due to ingestion of dry Saharan air.
Elsewhere... satellite imagery shows another vigorous tropical wave of low pressure has now entered the far eastern tropical Atlantic from the west coast of Africa. Considering that this system is embedded in the same dry Saharan air mass that has recently suppressed area of interest #10 and that none of the current computer model runs develop this wave... not upgrading this additional wave to an area of interest at this time.
MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL... Beryl has become a historic hurricane while slamming the southern Lesser Antilles with a category 4 core of 150 mph maximum sustained winds... followed by further intensification into a category 5 with 160 mph maximum sustained winds while sliding west-northwest across the eastern Caribbean Sea. What makes Beryl historic is that it is an unusually intense hurricane for this region of the Atlantic basin for so early in the hurricane season... and is now the earliest recorded category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic basin (the title was previously held by Hurricane Emily in 2005 when it became category 5 on July 16 that year). Forecast track remains west-northwest across the Caribbean Sea... the Yucatan peninsula... and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through day 5 as the hurricane rounds the southwest periphery of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. Noting that frontal systems that will cross North America during the 5-day forecast period are expected to be too far north to influence Beryl with their ridge weaknesses... instead the respective surface ridges that build behind the fronts (under the back convergence zone of the associated upper troughs) end up shifting east and adding to the west side of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. Noting that the north angle of Beryl's track has increased slightly as it entered the Caribbean... however in the upper-levels (200 mb layer) Beryl remains tucked under anticyclonic outflow beneath tropical upper ridging that is neutral to steering while the aforementioned Atlantic surface ridge has no weakness in Beryl's vicnity to help bend the track north. Regardless the recent model runs have been insisting on more of a northward angle toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and this angle has started to occur. It is probable then a SW/NE tilted steering upper trough is materializing northwest of the hurricane as some energy from the eastern Canada upper trough is merging with the western Atlantic upper vortex near the Bahamas... with the trough probably closer to Beryl at a lower layer of the atmosphere than the above birdseye view chart 200 mb upper-wind layer suggests. Therefore my updated forecast track through 72 hours is shifted north into Jamaica and the Cayman Islands... with a more west and less north track ensuing thereafter once the steering cold core upper trough collapses into two pieces of energy west and east of the hurricane due to its prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air.
Regarding intensity... I forecast Beryl to weaken from category 5 into a still powerful category 4 hurricane in the next 24 hours while assuming another eye wall replacement cycle occurs soon. By 48 hours the combo of land interaction with Jamaica and possible outflow disruption induced by the aforementioned SW/NE tilted upper trough should induce some weakening... and I pull the forecast intensity down further to category 3. Once the hurricane pulls away from Jamaica and passes in close proximity to the Cayman Islands (through 72 hours) the upper trough collapses as mentioned at the end of the prior paragraph... however if the decay rate of the upper trough ends up being a little slower this could still disrupt Beryl's outflow and so I only show slight re-strengthening. By 96 hours I increase the intensification rate as there is more confidence that Beryl will be under an expansive favorable upper ridge (low shear/enhanced outflow) in between the two remainder pieces of the collapsed upper trough. The weakening shown around 120 hours is associated with landfall across the Yucatan peninsula.
Northern Venezuela and the ABC Islands (Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao) and the south coast of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) will see coastal surf induced by Hurricane Beryl in the short-term. By Wednesday the south coast of Haiti and the Dominican Republic could see some gusty winds due to the northward-adjusted forecast track... with the remainder of the Dominican Republic and Haiti seeing possible heavy rainfall and flash flooding. Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and Jamaica are now bracing for a possible direct or near direct strike from this strong hurricane for Thursday and Friday and I recommend beginning preparations for possibly severe damaging winds... coastal surf... and heavy rainfall with high flash flooding potential. The latest forecast track also allows surf to reach the shores of the south-facing Cuba coast... the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula... and Belize by late in the five day forecast period (Friday/Saturday). Interests in Belize and the Yucatan peninsula should be monitoring Beryl's progress carefully in the days ahead as the hurricane could still be intense when closing in on the region towards the end of the forecast period.
Update as of 2 AM EDT... Beryl is slightly stronger with 165 mph maximum sustained winds and 935 mb minimum surface pressure.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position Forecast (0000Z Jul 2)... 160 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered over the eastern Caribbean Sea at 13.8N-64.9W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 3)... 150 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered just south-southeast of Haiti at 15.8N-72W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 4)... 120 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered over Jamaica at 18.2N-77.5W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 5)... 125 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered just west of the Cayman Islands at 19N-83W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 6)... 140 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered along the eastern Yucatan peninsula coast at 19.8N-87.8W
IOH 120 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 7)... 90 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the northeastern Bay of Campeche at 20.2N-91W
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT****************************
5-Day Position (0000Z Jul 7)... 65 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico at 22.5N-95W
AREA OF INTEREST #10... The tropical wave of low pressure following behind Hurricane Beryl has moved into the central tropical Atlantic and continues to display a broad low pressure swirl... the swirl was centered near 10N-43W as of 0000Z earlier this evening. As a forecaster we have been left holding the bag with this system as previous CMC and GFS model runs insisted on developing this wave... then quickly those models have abandoned developing this system while satellite observations now show the swirl has ingested dry Saharan air. This system is expected to continue west-northwest under the same expansive surface ridge that is also steering Beryl... and share the same upper-level environment of expansive tropical upper ridging (low shear/outflow) that Beryl is experiencing. Therefore the updated forecast philosophy is to show increasing odds of tropical cyclone formation with time as this system moves west-northwest across the southern Lesser Antilles then Caribbean Sea... generally toward the part of the Atlantic basin where dry Saharan air concentrations tend to be less. The peak odds of tropical cyclone formation have been lowered out of respect of the latest model consensus which now does not develop this wave.
This is some well-needed good news as the southern Lesser Antilles could use a break after getting slammed by intense Hurricane Beryl. However should this wave re-develop thunderstorm bands... it could still bring heavy rains... gusty winds... and coastal surf to the southern Lesser Antilles... northern coastal region of Venezuela... and the ABC Islands (Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao) by the middle to later part of this week.
Update as of 2 AM EDT... the NHC has lowered their odds of tropical cyclone formation to 20% through 48 hours... 30% through 7 days.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 3)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 10.5N-50W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 4)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just east of Trinidad near 11N-59W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 5)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean Sea and northeast of the ABC Islands near 12.5N-67W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 6)... 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of the Guajira peninsual of Colombia near 14N-72.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 7)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Caribbean Sea near 15N-78W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 20%
Formation chance through 7 days... 40%
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jul 1) CMC Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... center passes just south of the south coast of Jamaica by 54 hours and then just south of the Cayman Islands by 66 hours... makes landfall on the northeast coast of the Yucatan peninsula at 84 hours which then weakens to a tropical storm by the time it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico from the northwestern part of the peninsula by 96 hours... tropical storm re-intensifies into a hurricane across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico which then makes landfall just south of the Texas/Mexico border at 138 hours... the hurricane gradually weakens to an inland remnant low while moving inland and parallel to the Texas/Mexico border through 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
1200Z (Jul 1) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... moves west-northwest into eastern Jamaica through 54 hours... subsequently arcs more west in track and passes just south of the Cayman Islands by 72 hours followed by a landfall near the Belize/Mexico border by 102 hours... weakens to a tropical storm by the time it emerges into the Bay of Campeche from the west-central part of the Yucatan peninsula by 114 hours... does not re-intensify while wobbling slowly west across the Bay of Campeche and toward northern Veracruz through 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
1800Z (Jul 1) GFS Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... makes landfall on the south-central coast of Jamaica just after 48 hours with the center then passing just south of the Cayman Islands through 63 hours... subsequently curves more west in track which allows for landfall just north of the Belize/Mexico border by 87 hours... by the time this system enters the Gulf of Mexico through the northwest corner of the Yucatan peninsula at 99 hours the compact tropical cyclone rapidly weakens to a remnant low (cyclone forecast to be small relative to the peninsula)... remnant low moves northwest across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and into the Texas/Mexico border through 159 hours without re-developing... the remnant low weakens to a trough over far south Texas by 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
1800Z (Jul 1) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... center passes just south of Jamaica by 48 hours and then south of the Cayman Islands through 66 hours... makes landfall over the northeastern Yucatan peninsula by 102 hours and then enters the Gulf of Mexico from the northwestern corner of the Yucatan by 114 hours while still at hurricane strength... subsequently curves more north in track toward the Texas/Louisiana border through 168 hours a large and intense hurricane
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
Comments