*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...UPDATE...MONDAY JULY 1 2024 11:16 PM EDT...
The National Hurricane Center confirms that Beryl in the eastern Caribbean is now the earliest category 5 hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin... beating Emily of 2005... with max sustained winds now at 160 mph.
...UPDATE...MONDAY JULY 1 2024 10:18 PM EDT...
Satellite imagery of intense Hurricane Beryl's eye crossing the southern Lesser Antilles (left)... followed by more recent satellite imagery of Beryl in the eastern Caribbean while aircraft recon has recently found Beryl on the cusp of category 5 intensity (right):
Unfortunately for parts of the southern Lesser Antilles... Beryl's core hurriedly completed its eye wall replacement cycle overnight and re-intensified while crossing the southern Lesser Antilles through 11 AM EDT. Aircraft recon data indicated that Beryl was at its strongest since the beginning of its life cycle when it crossed the islands... with the data indicating 150 mph maximum sustained winds. Amazingly as of 8 PM EDT... while Beryl barrels west-northwest across the eastern Caribbean Sea... aircraft recon data found Beryl even stronger with 155 mph maximum sustained winds and 938 mb minimum central surface pressure which is knocking on the door of category 5 status. Will have an updated outlook on Beryl's future in my next full update tonight.
...MONDAY JULY 1 2024 3:30 AM EDT...
See Beryl section below for more information on the intense hurricane that is expected to cross the Caribbean Sea after pummeling through the southern Lesser Antilles. See Chris section below for more information on the new tropical storm that spun up over the western Bay of Campeche... the tropical storm has recenty made landfall across northern and central Veracruz. See area of interest #10 section below for an update on the tropical wave of low pressure following behind Beryl which could also bring impacts to the southeastern Caribbean land areas not long after Beryl passes through.
Elsewhere... satellite imagery shows another vigorous tropical wave of low pressure now entering the far eastern tropical Atlantic from the west coast of Africa. None of the computer models currently develop this wave as it traverses the tropical latitudes of the Atlantic... however expansive favorable tropical upper ridging (low shear/outflow) is forecast to remain in place across the region. Therefore if the wave does not excessively ingest dry Saharan air... it could become yet another area of interest in the Atlantic tropics in future updates.
MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL... Preparations for intense Hurricane Beryl in the southern Lesser Antilles should have been completed by now as the hurricane is getting ready to move into the islands in the next 12 hours. An eyewall replacement cycle recently caused Beryl's intensity to dip to 120 mph maximum sustaiend winds (as of 2 AM EDT) which is still at a dangerous category 3 level... and re-intensification is on the table once the eyewall replacement cycle finishes. Forecast track is steady to the west-northwest across the Caribbean Sea and Yucatan peninsula through day 5 as the hurricane rounds the southwest periphery of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. Noting that frontal systems that will cross North America during the 5-day forecast period are expected to be too far north to influence Beryl with their ridge weaknesses... instead the respective surface ridges that build behind the fronts (under the back convergence zone of the associated upper troughs) end up shifting east and adding to the west side of the steering Atlantic surface ridge. Regarding intensity... waters along the hurricane's forecast path are favorably warm and it seems there is not much in the atmosphere that will hold back Beryl as the overhead upper ridging providing low shear and outflow has expanded into the eastern Caribbean in the wake of decaying central Atlantic upper vorticity. Although the current cold core eastern Canada upper trough will be adding an injection of cold air to the western Atlantic upper vorticity... it is not enough to prevent subsequent decay of that vorticity through day 5 as the vorticity will then largely remain isolated from high-latitude cold air while pinned by the southeast side of the ongoing hot air mass upper ridge over the southern US. By the time Beryl moves across the central and western Caribbean in the latter part of the forecast period... the decaying western Atlantic upper vorticity will have decayed into one vortex retrograding west around the southern US upper ridge into the Gulf of Mexico and then Texas/Mexico... and another lobe of upper vorticity between the Caribbean Islands and Bermuda... with Beryl still under rather favorable upper ridging (low shear/outflow) in between both pieces of upper vorticity. With a favorable atmospheric outlook for Beryl... my intensity forecast primarily focuses on trying to anticipate structural changes in Beryl that will cause associated intensity fluctuations. As such I forecast Beryl to re-strengthen in the next 24 hours after completing its current eye wall replacement cycle. Beyond that time it is hard to guess what the eye structure will be like (how many more eye wall replacement cycles will occur... etc)... and we want to be sure that the forecast regarding the decay of the western Atlatnic upper vorticity remains the same before calling for Beryl to stay a high-end category 4 through day 4. So for now choose to park Beryl at the low-end of the category 4 range from 48 to 96 hours. Albeit there is some indication in the most recent model runs that the two pieces of aforementioned upper vorticity may be linked through 72 hours which would potentially disrupt the northern outflow of the hurricane... and I do dip the intensity of Beryl down around that time. But then by 96 hours the link between the two pieces of upper vorticity dissipates and I pull the intensity of Beryl back into the low-end category 4 range. Weakening shown around 120 hours is associated with landfall across Belize and the Yucatan peninsula.
For the southern Lesser Antilles... this is a life threatening situation for Tobago... Barbados... Grenada... St Vincent... and the Grenadines where the intense hurricane core is likely to pass through in the next 12 hours... also note that land areas adjacent to these islands will see less severe but still vigorous heavy rain... gusty winds... and coastal surf. Interests in the southern Lesser Antilles should have finished preparations by now. Northeastern Venezuela will also likely see an increase in coastal surf within the next 24 hours... with surf propagating further west along the remainder of the Venezuela coast... the ABC Islands (Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao)... and the south coast of Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) thru mid-week. Interests across Jamaica... the Cayman Islands... Belize... and the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Beryl for Thursday through weekend impacts as long-range forecast tracks are susceptible to changes... as such it is uncertain exactly how close Beryl will get to each of these areas (for now the most likely long range landfall is in the vicinity of the Belize/Mexico border). However at a minimum coastal surf is on the table... with surf reaching as far south as coastal northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras.
Not long after Beryl charges through the southern Lesser Antilles islands... another vigorous tropical wave of low pressure following behind has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. Expect another round of inclement weather or tropical cyclone impacts for the islands by mid-week... see area of interest #10 section below for more information.
******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********
0 Hr Position (0600Z Jul 1)... 130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered east of the southern Lesser Antilles at 11.5N-58.1W
IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 2)... 145 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered over the southeastern Caribbean Sea at 13N-65.5W
IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 3)... 130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered in the central Caribbean and south-southeast of Haiti at 14.9N-72W
IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 4)... 120 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered south of Jamaica at 15.5N-77.5W
IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 5)... 130 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered northeast of eastern Honduras at 17N-83W
IOH 120 Hr Forecast (0600Z Jul 6)... 90 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the south-central region of the Yucatan peninsula at 18.5N-89W
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT****************************
Peak Strength (0000Z Jul 2)... 140 mph maximum sustained wind major hurricane centered in the southeastern Caribbean Sea at 13.4N-64.2W
5-Day Position (0000Z Jul 6)... 65 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered in the eastern Bay of Campeche and just west of the northwestern Yucatan peninsula at 20.7N-91.5W
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS... As predicted in special update #29A (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-29a-special-update)... the third tropical depression of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season became Tropical Storm Chris as it approached landfall with central and northern Veracruz (peak intensity at landfall time was 40 mph maximum sustained winds). Inland dissipation of the circulation is expected next... and this is my planned final statement on this tropical system on this blog. Primary concern from Chris and its eventual inland remnants will be heavy rainfall across southeastern and central Mexico... which could result in flooding hazards espeically as grounds here are already saturated from the passage of previous tropical systems.
AREA OF INTEREST #10... As noted in special update #29A (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-29a-special-update)... the tropical wave of low pressure behind Beryl has become better organized while now having a singular well-defined spin (near 7.5N-37.5W as of 0000Z) instead of mulitple ones and I increased my peak odds of tropical cyclone formation to 80%. This system is expected to continue west-northwest under the same expansive surface ridge that is also steering Beryl... and share the same upper-level environment of expansive tropical upper ridging (low shear/outflow) that Beryl is experiencing. Main concern for this area of interest is impacts to the southern Lesser Antilles by mid-week... not long after intense hurricane Beryl strikes the islands. This system could also bring vigorous weather to the northern coastal region of Venezuela and the ABC Islands (Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao).
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 2)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 8N-43.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 3)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9N-49.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 4)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just east of Trinidad and Tobago near 10.5N-59W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 5)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just east of the ABC Islands and offshore of northern Venezuela near 12N-67W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 6)... 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of the Guajira peninsula of Colombia near 13.5N-72.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 AM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 40%
Formation chance through 7 days... 70%
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jun 30) CMC Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 24 hours... subsequently curves slighlty more north in track which takes it into the southeast coast of Jamaica at 72 hours and then across the Cayman Islands through 90 hours... hurricane makes landfall on the northeast corner of the Yucatan peninsula at 108 hours then gradually curves northwest across the the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and toward the Texas coast through 168 hours
**For Tropical Storm Chris... Veracruz landfall and inland dissipation shown over the next 24 hours
**For area of interest #10... compact tropical cyclone formation shown near 9.2N-36.5W at 18 hours... subsequently weakens to a compact remnant low that crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 78 hours... the tropical low re-strengthens into a compact tropical cyclone which proceeds to pass south of Jamaica at 126 hours and passes just offshore of the north coast of Honduras by 156 hours... tropical cyclone makes landfall over Belize through 168 hours
1200Z (Jun 30) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 24 hours... subsequently curves slightly more north in track which takes it just offshore of the south Jamaica coast through 78 hours... passes south of the Cayman Islands by 90 hours and makes landfall at the Belize/Mexico border at 120 hours... hurricane emeges into the eastern Bay of Campeche from the west-central Yucatan peninsula coast at 138 hours and proceeds to move west-northwest toward the Tamaulipas/Veracruz border through 168 hours
**For Tropical Storm Chris... Veracruz landfall and inland dissipation shown over the next 24 hours
**For area of interest #10... develops into a tropical low near 11.5N-43.5W at 42 hours... the tropical low weakens back to a wave while it crosses the southern Lesser Antilles by 84 hours
0000Z (Jul 1) GFS Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 15 hours... subsequently curves slightly more north in track which takes it just offshore of the south Jamaica coast through 69 hours... passes south of the Cayman Islands by 81 hours and makes landfall over northern Belize by 105 hours... through 120 hours the hurricane weakens to a tropical storm while crossing the southern part of the Yucatan peninsla and enters the eastern Bay of Campeche... re-intensifies into a hurricane while crossing the Bay of Campeche and makes landfall over southern Veracruz by 150 hours... rapid dissipation after landfall shown shortly thereafter
**For Tropical Storm Chris... Veracruz landfall and inland dissipation shown over the next 15 hours
**For area of interest #10... crossses the southern Lesser Antilles as an amplified wave featuring embedded tropical low by 66 hours... tropical low becomes a compact eastern Caribbean tropical cyclone near 15N-65W at 78 hours with the tropical cyclone re-weakening back to a wave that passes just south of Jamaica by 120 hours... through 168 hours the wave does not re-develop while moving into the western Caribbean.
1800Z (Jun 30) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Major Hurricane Beryl... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 18 hours... subsequently curves slightly more north in track which takes it across the north coast of Jamaica by 72 hours and then across the Cayman Islands through 84 hours... enters the Gulf of Mexico while center passes between the west tip of Cuba and northeast corner of the Yucatan through 108 hours... subsequently curves more north into southeastern Louisiana through 156 hours while becoming a large intense hurricane... the center of the hurricane then curves more north-northeast taking it into the southern Mississippi/Alabama border through 168 hours
**For Tropical Storm Chris... Veracruz landfall and inland dissipation shown over the next 18 hours
**For area of interest #10... initialized as a tropical low which then weakens to a wave near 12.5N-44W by 36 hours... wave not shown to develop in the long range
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