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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #28

Writer's picture: NCHurricane2009NCHurricane2009

Updated: Jun 29, 2024

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...UPDATE… SATURDAY JUNE 29 2024 11:16 PM EDT...

Satellite image of the three current tropical Atlantic systems as of 0040Z… marked as A… B… and C. The most pressing system of the three is system B… Tropical Storm Beryl which has already become Hurricane Beryl en route to the southern Lesser Antilles for a Monday strike as a likely major hurricane:

A) For the tropical wave of low pressure from the western Caribbean Sea now crossing the Yucatan peninsula… which is the 8th tropical area of interest tracked on this site this year… the system has remained organized while retaining a well-defined spin that will soon be entering the eastern Bay of Campeche from the southwest part of the peninsula. Although the northwest side of the circulation has less activity due to outflow suppression induced by the nearby upper vorticity to the west… the upper vorticity is still forecast to dissipate in the next 24 hours. And given the system remains organized I agree with the most recent NHC outlook assessment that gives a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation before this system makes landfall in Veracruz in the next 36 hours. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... any heavy rainfall this wave produces across Guatemala... southeastern Mexico... and east-central Mexico could be detrimental and cause flooding hazards... as grounds here are already saturated from the passage of previous tropical systems. Noting Veracruz also has a higher chance now to receive gusty winds and costal surf by 36 hours.

B) Beryl has spent the last 24 hours strengthening from a minimal tropical storm with 40 mph maximum sustained winds (1006 mb pressure) into a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph maximum sustained winds (986 mb pressure). Therefore now bumping up the intensity forecast. Because the latest colorized infrared satellite does not show a solid eye structure just yet… forecast that Beryl will become a category 2 instead of higher in the next 24 hours at which point I expect it will have a healthier core with well-defined eye. And with favorable upper winds remaining over the hurricane… I then expect Beryl could more rapidly intensify as high as a category 4 hurricane for its Monday passage across the southern Lesser Antilles. This is becoming a potential life threatening situation for Tobago… Barbados… Grenada… St Vincent… and the Grenadines where the hurricane core is likely to pass through… also note that land areas adjacent to these islands will see less severe but still vigorous heavy rain… gusty winds… and coastal surf. Interests in the southern Lesser Antilles should be rushing preparations to completion by tomorrow evening.

C) The tropical wave of low pressure following behind Beryl… which is the 10th tropical area of interest tracked on this site this year… has become a little better organized while its south side is seeing more curvature in the thunderstorm bands and as it retains a separate identity from another adjacent wave to its east. Therefore its tropical cyclone formation potential over the next five days is increasing… unfortunately interests in the southern Lesser Antilles are now more likely to see another round of tropical cyclone impacts by mid-week not long after Beryl passes.


...SATURDAY JUNE 29 2024 1:45 AM EDT...

Atlantic tropical activity continues to escalate as Tropical Storm Beryl quickly forms in central tropical Atlantic... with two additional areas of interest... one to the east of Beryl and another in the western Caribbean Sea:

(1) See Beryl section below for more information on the new tropical storm... including information on impacts expected for the southern Lesser Antilles... north coast of Venezuela... Aruba... Bonaire... Curacao... and Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic)

(1) See area of interest #8 section below for an update on the western Caribbean tropical wave of low pressure expected to cross the Yucatan peninsula and Bay of Campeche waters in the days ahead.

(2) See area of interest #10 section below for an update on the tropical wave of low pressure trailing behind Beryl to the east.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (RECENTLY UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BERYL)... Infrared satellite imagery of the Atlantic tropics showing Tropical Storm Beryl and western Caribbean tropical wave as of 0230Z:

The continuously organizing tropical wave of low pressure that has been moving into the central tropical Atlantic from the eastern tropical Atlantic was upgraded to tropical depression two by 5 PM EDT Friday... and then Tropical Storm Beryl by 11 PM EDT. Through 96 hours the forecast track remains steady to the west then west-northwest while Beryl rounds the southwest quadrant of the steering Atlantic surface ridge... however noting I have a faster forward speed than my previous forecast based on the recent pace that Beryl has taken. By 120 hours I increase the north angle of the forecast track as Beryl is likely to be a strong/tall enough tropical cyclone to be influenced by ongoing upper vorticity in the western Atlantic. Regarding the intensity forecast... through 96 hours Beryl will remain over warm waters while embedded in a low shear/upper outflow environment as the south part of the current string of central Atlantic upper vorticity weakens from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... opening the door for the overhead tropical upper ridge axis to expand into the eastern Caribbean. Albeit in the short-term... the strongest thunderstorms are currently lopsided to the west half of the circulation due to easterly shear imparted by the south side of the tropical upper ridge axis and so I show an initially slower intensification rate. After 24 hours the forecast shear values decrease after Beryl goes directly under the portion of the tropical upper ridge axis displaced further south by the current central Atlantic upper vorticity... and this is when I pick up the pace of forecast intensification. I generally agree with the NHC strategy of showing a category 2 hurricane for the peak intensity forecast... however the NHC as of the 11 PM EDT advisory notes that plenty of intensity guidance suggests Beryl could even become stronger than this. Therefore will have to be ready to bump up the intensity forecast in future updates should Beryl begin to strengthen more briskly than expected within the next couple of days. For the long range... models agree on weakening Beryl while the the storm begins to encounter southerly shear imparted by the ongoing western Atlantic upper vorticity... and by day 5 I begin to show weakening.


Interests in the southern Lesser Antilles should be aware that hurricane-force coastal surf... gusty winds... and heavy rainfall have become quiet likely by Monday and that preparations for such conditions will likely need to occur this weekend. Northeastern Venezuela will also likely see an increase in coastal surf by Monday... with surf propagating further west along the remainder of the Venezuela coast as well as the ABC Islands (Aruba... Bonaire... and Curacao) thru mid-week. In general Beryl appears poised to curve more north in track toward Hispaniola (Haiti and the Dominican Republic) by mid-week where coastal surf will also increase. The shearing southerly upper winds interacting with Beryl during that time are likely to pull moisture from Beryl northward across the Hispaniola... therefore heavy rains with flooding and mudslide potential may become a concern here by mid-week as well.


Not long after Beryl charges through the southern Lesser Antilles islands... another vigorous tropical wave of low pressure following behind could produce another round of inclement weather across the islands by mid-week... see area of interest #10 section below for more information.

******Infohurricanes.com forecast. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official forecast***********

0 Hr Position (0000Z Jun 29)... 35 mph maximum sustained wind tropical depression centered at 9.1N-41.9W

IOH 24 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jun 30)... 50 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered at 9.5N-48.5W

IOH 48 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 1)... 70 mph maximum sustained wind tropical storm centered at 10N-54.5W

IOH 72 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 2)... 90 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered just north of Trinidad and Tobago at 11.5N-60.5W

IOH 96 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 3)... 110 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered in the eastern Caribbean Sea at 13.5N-67W

IOH 120 Hr Forecast (0000Z Jul 4)... 105 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered south of Haiti and the Dominican Republic at 15.8N-71.5W

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official forecast as of 11 PM EDT****************************

Peak Strength (0000Z Jul 2)... 105 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered over the southeastern Caribbean Sea at 13.6N-63.6W

5-Day Position (0000Z Jul 4)... 90 mph maximum sustained wind hurricane centered on the southwest coast of Jamaica at 17.8N-77.8W


AREA OF INTEREST #8... As noted by my 11:54 AM EDT short update on Friday... in previous post #27... the tropical wave of low pressure now travsering the western Caribbean Sea has continued to slowly organize while heading for Belize and the Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico. This has been allowed to occur as the shearing southern Gulf of Mexico upper vorticity has weakened faster than previous projections... perhaps due to the increased thunderstorm latent heat release this tropical wave has been producing over the last 36 hours which may have helped punch out the cold core upper vorticity. As such I now think there is a narrow 10% chance the wave becomes a tropical cyclone overnight and just before making landfall across Belize and the Yucatan. Surface ridging is expected to build north of the tropical wave for the duration of the forecast period... under the western convergence zone of the current western Canada upper trough when that trough later shifts east into the longitudes aligned with this tropical wave... and also due to the southeastern convergence zone of the ongoing southern US upper ridge. The surface ridging will push the tropical wave into the Bay of Campeche and then toward/into Veracruz for the 48 to 72 hour timeframe. During this window... the models now suggest the shearing Gulf of Mexico upper vorticity will now be entirely dissipated... giving an opportunity for this wave to develop in the Bay of Campeche. As such I have increased my odds of tropical cyclone formation for this window of time to 20%.


Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... any heavy rainfall this wave produces across western Central America... southeastern Mexico... and east-central Mexico in the days ahead could be detrimental and cause flooding hazards... as grounds here are already saturated from the passage of previous tropical systems.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 12 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jun 29)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of southern Quintana Roo near 18.5N-87.5W)

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 29)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Quintana Roo near 19N-88.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jun 30)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern Bay of Campeche near 20N-91.5W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 1)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone foramtion (offshore of central Veracruz near 20.5N-96W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Jul 2)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland east-central Mexico near 21N-100W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 40%

Formation chance through 7 days... 40%


AREA OF INTEREST #10... The latest tropical wave of low pressure in the far eastern tropical Atlantic is dealing with some recent challenges... becoming less organized while ingesting dry Saharan air to the north while also becoming entangled with another wave to the east that has been emerging from western Africa over the last 36 hours. Noting this wave has been moving faster to the west than my previous projections... however I have slowed the forecast forward speed for the next 48 hours while as this wave potentially becomes tugged by and then merges with the neighboring wave to the east. Even if the wave becomes better consolidated in the longer range after the merger... the wave is forecast to be under easterly shearing upper winds on the south side of the regional tropical upper ridge axis for the 5-day forecast period. Therefore for this area of interest I have lowered my peak odds of tropical cyclone formation to 20% in this update cycle. Even if tropical cyclone formation does not occur... this wave could produce another round of inclement weather across the southern Lesser Antilles islands by the middle of this upcoming week... not long after Beryl makes its strike on the islands.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 10N-32.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 1)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 10N-37.5W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 2)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 10N-43.5W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 3)... 15% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 10.5N-50W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 4)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of the southern Lesser Antilles near 11.5N-57.5W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 0%

Formation chance through 7 days... 40%


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


1200Z (Jun 28) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #8... develops into a central Bay of Camepche tropical low at 42 hours which makes landfall over southern Veracruz at 66 hours... inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter

**For area of interest #9 (recently upgraded to tropical depression two)... tropical cyclone formation shown near 10.5N-46.5W at 30 hours... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles at 78 hours as an intense tropical cyclone... gradually shrinks in size while weakening as it continues west-northwest across the northern Caribbean and passes over Jamaica just after 126 hours... the slowly weakening tropical cyclone proceeds just south of the Cayman Islands at 144 hours then east coast of the Yucatan peninsula at 162 hours

**For area of interest #10... evolves into broad tropical low near 7.5N-41.5W at 66 hours with tropical cyclone formation suggested shortly thereafter... as a compact and potentially strong tropical cyclone passes over the southernmost Lesser Antilles at 132 hours... the potentially strong tropical cyclone passes just north of the ABC Islands at 150 hours with the tropical cyclone reaching 13N-73.8W at 168 hours


0000Z (Jun 28) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #8... becomes a tropical low making landfall on the Belize/Mexico border at 24 hours and weakens back to a tropical wave shortly thereafter... the tropical wave organizes into a broad Bay of Campeche tropical low by 48 hours which then makes landfall over northern Veracruz at 78 hours... inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter

**For area of interest #9 (recently upgraded to tropical depression two)... tropical cyclone formation suggested at 10N-44W at 30 hours... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles as a compact and potentially intense tropical cyclone at 90 hours... the compact tropical cyclone passes south of Jamaica at 138 hours after which time the track bends more west with the tropical cyclone slowly weakening... the tropical cyclone makes landfall on eastern Honduras coast at 162 hours

**For area of interest #10... no development shown


1200Z (Jun 28) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #8... develops into an eastern Bay of Campeche tropical low at 42 hours which makes landfall over southern Veracruz by 69 hours... inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter

**For area of interest #9 (recently upgraded to tropical depression two)... tropical cyclone formation shown near 9.5N-43W at 15 hours... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles as a compact and potentially intense tropical cyclone at 75 hours... proceeds west-northwest while gradually weakening and shrinking in size and makes landfall on the southern Haiti peninsula at 120 hours... the landfall causes this system to decay into a remnant tropical wave that passes between Jamaica and southeastern Cuba through 135 hours... tropical wave proceeds to drift west across the Cayman Islands and northwestern Caribbean through 168 hours

**For area of interest #10... tropical cyclone formation shown near 9.5N-44W at 81 hours... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles as a compact tropical cyclone at 123 hours... the tropical cyclone proceeds to curve more north in track while shrinking in size and weakening and makes landfall over south-central Haiti at 162 hours... the landfall causes system to weaken further to a remnant surface trough between Haiti and southeastern Cuba through 168 hours


1200Z (Jun 28) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #8... evolves into eastern Bay of Campeche tropical low by 36 hours... proceeds to evolve into weak/broad tropical cyclone that then makes landfall over northern Veracruz at 66 hours... inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter

**For area of interest #9 (recently upgraded to tropical depression two)... evolves into a weak tropical cyclone while moving into the southern Lesser Antilles through 66 hours... center of the weak tropical cyclone moves between Jamaica and southeastern Cuba by 126 hours and passes over the Cayman Islands at 144 hours... tropical cyclone begins to strengthen while passing between the west tip of Cuba and northeastern Yucatan peninsula through 168 hours

**For area of interest #10... no development shown

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