*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...UPDATE...FRIDAY JUNE 28 2024 11:54 AM EDT...
Due to personal matters... was not able to release full update on the Atlantic tropics overnight. Visit the NHC official website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for up to the minute latest information... here are some quick updates to the current areas of interest that have occurred since my previous short update 4:26 PM yesterday afternoon:
(1) Area of Interest #8... The Caribbean tropical wave of low pressure is now advancing into the western Caribbean waters north of Honduras while becoming better organized. This has been allowed to occur as the lingering Gulf upper vorticity and its associated shear has weakened. The National Hurricane Center however has cancelled its aircraft recon mission for this area of interest while not expecting tropical cyclone formation before the impending Belize and Yucatan peninsula landfall... will be checking on the latest forecast for upper winds to assess whether or not I think potential for development is possible when this system later moves into the Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan... will have an update on that in my next full update on the Atlantic tropics.
(2) Area of Interest #9... Continues to become better-organized and tropical cyclone formation appears to be occurring already... interests in the southern Lesser Antilles need to pay close attention to this situation.... check with the NHC offical webiste hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for up to the minute latest information.
(3) Area of Interest #10... no changes.
...UPDATE...THURSDAY JUNE 27 2024 4:26 PM EDT...
True-color visible satellite image of the tropical latitudes of the Atlantic as of 1830Z:
The following is a quick update on all current areas of interest in the Atlantic tropics... my next full update is scheduled for tonight:
(1) Area of Interest #8... the central Caribbean tropical wave of low pressure continues to approach western Central America... with the north side of the wave seeing a notable increase in activity that has overspread Jamaica with heavy rainfall. The increase in activity on the wave's north side is associated with divergence on the southeast side of ongoing Gulf of Mexico upper vorticity... however this same upper vorticity is applying wind shear not ideal for tropical development. As the wave slides across western Central America and southeastern Mexico over the next 72 hours... the potential for development of its north side over offshore western Caribbean or Bay of Campeche waters remains low as the Gulf upper vorticity is not forecast to decay fast enough... thus wind shear and/or outflow suppression is possible over the north side of the wave. Regardless... the main concern from this wave is any heavy rainfall it produces across western Central America and southeastern Mexico in the days ahead which will be detrimental and cause flooding hazards... as grounds here are already saturated from the passage of previous tropical systems.
(2) Area of Interest #9... the western of the two tropical waves of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic has become better organized with increased curvature in the thunderstorm bands. The NHC through day 7 has increased odds of tropical cyclone formation to 80%... and I agree with this while also now calling for an 80% chance of tropical cyclone formation thru day 5. Interests in the southern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system as it has increased potential to bring tropical cyclone impacts in 4+ days.
(3) Area of Interest #10... the eastern of the two tropical waves of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic is located just offshore of western Africa... however it has not become better organized while ingesting some dry Saharan air to the north. And given that neighboring area of interest #9 is getting a head start in developing... which increases its potential to dominate the regional surface inflow and upper outflow that this wave would also need for development... its potential for development remains lower than area of interest #9 and I continue to assign a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next five days. However noting some recent model runs still develop this wave... and interests in the southern Lesser Antilles should also keep monitoring this second wave.
...THURSDAY JUNE 27 2024 2:40 AM EDT...
Over the last 36 hours... Atlantic tropical activity has markedly escalated with the number of concurrent areas of interest increasing from one to three:
(1) See area of interest #8 section below for an update on the tropical wave of low pressure that is moving rapidly westward across the Caribbean after earlier crossing the Lesser Antilles island chain.
(2) See area of interest #9 and #10 sections below for the two new areas of interest in the eastern tropical Atlantic being monitored for development in the days ahead... both are at risk of bringing impacts to the southern Lesser Antilles in 5+ days.
For the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic... the current Caribbean upper ridge has expanded as far northeast as the western Atlantic in the wake of upper vorticity that was recently scooped away by the current northwest Atlantic upper trough. In addition a cut-off upper vortex is currently positioned along the coastal region of the southeastern United States. The combination of divergence on the east side of the vortex and outflow of the western Atlantic upper ridging has produced an east-west elongated area of low-level vorticity (low pressure) covering much of the waters between the northwestern Bahamas and Bermuda as seen by the CIMSS 850 mb vorticity product (https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=). In the short-term models are agreeing the aforementioned cut-off upper vortex and currently approaching eastern Canada upper trough merge into an elongated string of western Atlantic upper vorticity with an equally elongated supportive upper divergence zone... which should keep the low-level low pressure field elongated in structure such that a well-defined center needed for tropical development becomes unlikely. Then after 24 hours much of the elongated upper vorticity string continues east and away in the mid-latitude westerlies... leaving behind a smaller area of upper vorticity in the western Atlantic with a more concentrated upper divergence zone on its east side and toward Bermuda. However tropical development in the vicinity of Bermuda is also not expected as water temps in this region are below 26 deg C (north of the 26 deg C isotherm... and south of the narrow ribbon of warm Gulf stream waters). In summary... not adding a tropical area of interest for the mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic in this update.
AREA OF INTEREST #8... This area of interest continues to be characterized as a fast-moving low-amplitude surface tropical wave of low pressure now located in the central Caribbean... perhaps the low-amplitude nature of the wave allows it to more easily flow around the steering surface ridging to the north. Through the next 96 hours the tropical wave is forecast to continue briskly west-northwest across western Central America... then southeastern Mexico and the Bay of Campeche... while steered by an extension of the Atlantic surface ridge that will build across the Florida peninsula and Gulf of Mexico thanks to upper convergence beneath the northwest side of ongoing Gulf of Mexico upper vorticity and southeast side of the southern US upper ridge. In general the unfavorable cold-core Gulf upper vorticity (brining shear and upper convergence) is on the wane from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... however because the wave has moved faster to the west than previous projections there will still be disruptive Gulf upper vorticity in place when the wave traverses the western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche waters. Therefore the wave's development potential has decreased as seen by the latest model consensus... and I have dropped my odds of tropical cyclone formation for this area of interest to 0%.
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... any heavy rainfall this wave produces across western Central America and southeastern Mexico in the days ahead could be detrimental and cause flooding hazards... as grounds here are already saturated from the passage of previous tropical systems.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland portion of eastern Honduras/Nicaragua border near 14.8N-84W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 10%
Formation chance through 7 days... 20%
AREA OF INTEREST #9... Based on the latest satellite imagery... the current eastern Atlantic tropical wave of low pressure has its maximum rotation near 8N-31W as of this writing. This wave emerged from the west coast of Africa early on June 23 without much fanfare while entangled with dry Saharan air... however over the last 36 hours thunderstorm activity has increased with the wave and computer models have quickly latched on to developing this wave. As a result the wave has promplty been introduced into the NHC tropical weather outlook and already with elevated odds of tropical cyclone formation. This marks the ninth tropical Atlantic area of interest tracked on this site this year.
The forecast track is steady to the west then west-northwest while this wave rounds the southwest quadrant of the steering Atlantic surface ridge... so far the wave has been progressing at a typical 5W longitude per day pace and the forward speed in my forecast track is based on that. Assuming this wave does not succumb to dry Saharan air... upper winds will remain favorable for development for this wave through the five day forecast period while tucked underneath a regional tropical upper ridge featuring low shear and upper outflow. The northeast and northwest extent of the tropical upper ridge is currently suppressed by lingering upper vorticity in the mid-latitudes of the eastern and central Atlantic. However the models are agreeing that much of the central Atlantic upper vorticity retrogrades southwestward across the eastern Caribbean and away from this wave while pushed by the current Caribbean to west Atlantic upper ridge... and by day 5 whatever upper vorticity remains in the eastern Caribbean dissipates from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air. This opens the door for upper winds remaining favorable for development as the wave nears the southern Lesser Antilles and southeastern Caribbean Sea in 5+ days. Despite the favorable upper wind outlook... I have not yet raised my odds of tropical cyclone formation above 50% in this update for two reasons... (1) lingering dry Saharan air to the north which the wave may ingest at times... and (2) there is a nearby and also vigorous adjacent tropical wave to the east... tagged area of interest #10 in this update... the two waves may be close enough to each other resulting in a fight for surface inflow and upper outflow.
Interests in the southern Lesser Antilles should be aware that this wave and adjacent wave to the east (area of interest #10) will be moving into the region in 5+ days... with one or both waves potentially bringing tropical cyclone impacts (gusty winds... heavy rainfall... and coastal surf)... please monitor the progress of both waves in the days ahead.
Update as of 2 AM EDT... the NHC has recently raised their odds of tropical cyclone formation for this wave further... to 40% through 48 hours... and to 70% through 7 days.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 8.5N-35W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9N-40W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9.5N-45W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 1)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 10N-50W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 2)... 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of the southern Lesser Antilles near 10.5N-55W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 30%
Formation chance through 7 days... 60%
AREA OF INTEREST #10... Based on the curvature of thunderstorms now departing the west coast of Africa... it appears the next tropical wave of low pressure is emerging from Africa with a maximum spin near 8N-13W as of this writing. Because some recent model runs develop this wave... and because atmospheric conditions for this wave will also be favorable for development (low shear/outflow beneath the regional tropical upper ridge)... I have also added this wave as a new area of interest on this blog... now marking the tenth tropical Atlantic area of interest tracked on this site this year. My peak odds of tropical cyclone formation are at a slightly lower 40% when compared to area of interest #9... as this wave in the short-term may have to contend with the part of the tropical upper ridge that is more suppressed by the current mid-latitude eastern Atlantic upper vorticity while area of interest #9 is already moving away from the suppressed part of the upper ridge... potentially giving area of interest #9 a head start in developing and dominating the surface inflow and upper outflow in the region. Also noting this area of interest has less model support showing development compared to area of interest #9.
This area of interest may bring notable impacts to the southern Lesser Antilles soon after area of interest #9 crosses the islands... see area of interest #9 section above for more details.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern troipcal Atlantic near 8N-18W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 8N-23W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 30)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 8N-28W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 1)... 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 8.5N-33W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 2)... 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 9N-40W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************
Not in the official outlook
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jun 26) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... after traversing western Central America and southeastern Mexico develops into a Bay of Camepche tropical low just offshore of southern Veracruz at 96 hours... landfall and inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #9... evolves into a tropical low near 10N-33.5W at 30 hours with tropical cyclone formation suggested near 10N-35W at 42 hours... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles through 132 hours as a potentially intense but compact tropical cyclone... the compact and still strong tropical cyclone located south of Haiti by 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... additional tropical wave emerges from west coast of Africa at 30 hours and evolves into a disorganized broad tropical low near 9N-40W at 120 hours... tropical low continues west-northwest toward central Lesser Antilles through 168 hours
1200Z (Jun 26) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... no development shown
**For area of interest #9... evolves into a tropical low near 9.5N-34W at 30 hours with tropical cyclone formation near 10.5N-47.5W at 84 hours... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles by 126 hours as a potentially intense but compact tropical cyclone... intense tropical cyclone reaches the central Caribbean (14N-73.8W) by 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
1800Z (Jun 26) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... no development shown
**For area of interest #9... tropical cyclone formation suggested near 8.5N-41.5W at 54 hours... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles by 120 hours as a potentially intense but compact tropical cyclone... tropical cyclone continues west-northwest into the waters between Jamaica and Haiti through 168 hours but while gradually weakening
**For area of interest #10... additional tropical wave emerges from west coast of Africa at 30 hours and evolves into a tropical cyclone near 10.5N-49W at 129 hours... moves into the southern Lesser Antilles as a very compact tropical cyclone by 162 hours.
1200Z (Jun 26) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #8... no development shown
**For area of interest #9... crosses the southern Lesser Antilles as a broad tropical low through 120 hours... the broad tropical low becomes smaller (more consolidated) while passing south of Jamaica by 168 hours
**For area of interest #10... no development shown
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