*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...MONDAY JUNE 24 2024 2:50 AM EDT...
See area of interest #7 section below for an update on the western Gulf of Mexico tropical low pressure which is now making landfall on the Tamaulipas coast of Mexico. See area of interest #8 section for information on the current central Atlantic tropical wave of low pressure currently near 42.5W longitude... which may later develop as it moves across the Caribbean Sea in the days ahead.
Noting that the tropical low pressure swirl that moved into the Carolinas from southeast Georgia... tagged as area of interest #6 in prior posts... defied prior projections while tracking further east and staying close to offshore warm Atlantic waters. However tropical development has not occured the low pressure swirl has recently dissipated.
Elsewhere... upper winds in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic (between Africa and the Lesser Antilles) will remain favorable for tropical activity over the next few days due to low shear and outflow provided by the tropical upper ridge axis in the region. However the tropical waves of low pressure passing through the region are not developing... and are not forecast to develop through day 7... due to ongoing outbreaks of dry Saharan air kicked up by the waves when they depart Africa (only exception is this past 1200Z CMC model run which suggests one of the waves evolves into a compact central Atlantic tropical low by day 7... however one model run is not enough of a consensus for this to be a concern at this time).
AREA OF INTEREST #7... Satellite imagery showing progress of western Gulf of Mexico tropical low parked near the Tamaulipas coast of Mexico on Sunday June 23:
As of Sunday the broad tropical low pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico has consolidated toward the Tamaulipas coast of Mexico (vicinity of 23.8N-98W). The original bands of activity that rotated into Tamaulipas late Saturday dissipated... however by Sunday morning (1240Z) a new burst of activity in the vicinity of coastal Tamaulipas was in progress as shown by the above satellite imagery. Tropical cyclone formation did not occur as the band of upper vorticity that has recently pushed into the Gulf of Mexico proceeded to shove the thunderstorm activity westward away from the center of rotation and into inland Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon by Sunday evening (2300Z)... leaving the center as an exposed cloud swirl by sunset as shown in the above satellite imagery. Going forward the southwest side of the surface ridge currently heading toward the Ohio Valley from the central US will cause the surface low pressure center to drift northwest into northeastern Mexico. Time has run out for tropical cyclone formation as the less favorable upper winds brought in by the aforementioned upper vorticity band and increasing land interaction should inhibit tropical development going forward... and this is my planned final statement on this area of interest on this blog unless it continues to be mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook by my next update. Periods of additional heavy rain will be possible across Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon within the next 24 hours as the tropical low moves inland.
Update as of 2 AM EDT... the NHC has lowered odds of tropical cyclone formation to 0% in their latest tropical weather outlook.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 25)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northeastern Mexico near 25.2N-99W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 10%
Formation chance through 7 days... 10%
AREA OF INTEREST #8... Various computer model runs over the last couple of days suggest the central Atlantic tropical wave of low pressure that was located at 42.5W longitude at 1800Z earlier today may develop while later crossing the Caribbean Sea. Upper ridging in the Caribbean is currently suppressed toward Central America by a lengthy string of upper vorticity across the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic. However the upper ridge is forecast to expand back across the Caribbean as much of the western Atlantic upper vorticity becomes swept away by the approaching upper trough currently over the Great Lakes region of North America... with the remainder Gulf of Mexico upper vorticity gradually decaying from prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air (albeit the decay process is slowed while some upper vorticity is deposited over the Gulf by the current Great Lakes upper trough and also the next upper trough currently moving into western Canada... however enough decay still occurs through day 5 to allow the upper ridge to expand across the Caribbean). The low shear and outflow of the expanding Caribbean upper ridge may allow the tropical wave of interest to develop as it later traverses the Caribbean... however I show a low 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation by day 5 as most model runs that do develop this wave do so as it later moves toward Central America and the western Caribbean toward day 7. Noting this area of interest will continue west-northwest over the next several days... at first due to steering influence of the Atlantic surface ridge followed by an extension of the surface ridge toward the Florida peninsula supported by convergence beneath the aforementioned Gulf upper vorticity.
Main concern for this area of interest is that it could produce heavy rains across western Central America and southeastern Mexico by day 7... over grounds previously saturated by the circulation that eventually became Alberto followed by the circulation that became area of interest #7. This would result in a flood risk in this region by next week.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 25)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 10N-53W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 26)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean Sea near 11.5N-62.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 27)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeastern Caribbean Sea near 12.5N-67.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 28)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Caribbean Sea near 14N-73W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 29)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south-southwest of Jamaica near 15N-78.5W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT**************************
Not in the official outlook
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jun 23) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #7... no development shown
**For area of interest #8... tropical wave currently at 42.5W longitude crosses the Atlantic tropical belt and Caribbean... evolves into tropical low making landfall on coastal Belize by 138 hours... tropical low proceeds across the southern Yucatan peninsula and into western Bay of Campeche through 168 hours
**Tropical wave currently at 22W longitude evolves into compact tropical low near 11.5N-46.5W at 108 hours... tropical low reaches the southern Lesser Antilles by 168 hours
1200Z (Jun 23) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #7... no development shown
**For area of interest #8... no development shown
1800Z (Jun 23) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #7... no development shown
**For area of interest #8... tropical wave currently at 42.5W longitude crosses the Atlantic tropical belt and Caribbean... by 108 hours evolves into broad tropical low with multiple centers covering Central America and the western Caribbean... center of broad tropical low makes landfall at Belize/Mexico border at 144 hours and begins to enter eastern Bay of Campeche from the southwestern Yucatan peninsula at 168 hours
1800Z (Jun 23) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #7... no development shown
**For area of interest #8... no development shown
**Tropical wave currently at 55W longitude evolves into broad tropical low over Belize... northern Guatemala... and southwestern Yucatan peninsula by 156 hours... broad tropical low conitnues into eastern Bay of Campeche through 168 hours
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