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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #22A (Special Update)

Writer's picture: NCHurricane2009NCHurricane2009

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...FRIDAY JUNE 21 2024 12:40 AM EDT...

The following are updates on the Atlantic tropical systems discussed in full post #22 (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-22)... the system that has undergone the most significant change is the compact tropical low now heading for northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia... tagged as area of interest #6 in the prior full post:


REMNANTS OF ALBERTO... The surface circulation of Alberto collapsed over the mountainous terrain of inland central Mexico earlier on Thursday... and by 5 PM EDT the National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on the tropical cyclone. Due to the force of the large upper vortex that has accelerated southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico... combined with the upper-level easterlies on the south side of the regional upper ridge cell... the remnant mid-level circulation and associated thunderstorm gyre has rocketed westward across west-central Mexico and has already enteried the eastern Pacific en route to Mexico's southern Baja California peninsula.


AREA OF INTEREST #6... Satellite image of the better-organized tropical low now heading for northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia... taken at 0431Z:

The small surface tropical low pressure that has been heading for the coastal southeastern United States has seen its maximum spin reform further north toward where it has been firing thunderstorms over the last several hours. In addition a small thunderstorm core has now been persisting near the maximum spin... and a compact tropical cyclone could be forming especially as it remains tucked in a small area of favorable upper outflow in between the Gulf of Mexico upper vortex to the southwest and another upper vortex to the northeast. Because of the northward reformation of the maximum spin... impacts to the northwestern Bahamas are not expected going forward... instead the impact zone for tonight has shifted to the northeastern corner of Florida and southeastern corner of Georgia where tropical cyclone impacts such as gusty winds... heavy rainfall... and coastal surf have become increasingly likely. Through 8 PM EDT Thursday the NHC has gradually increased odds of tropical cyclone formation to 50%. I have increased my odds of tropical cyclone formation for this system to 80%.


AREA OF INTEREST #7... Satellite image of tropical disturbance covering western Central America and the western Caribbean... taken at 0430Z:

For the surface trough of low pressure spanning the Bay of Campeche and western Caribbean in the wake of Alberto... the western Caribbean portion of the trough saw a notable increase in thunderstorm activity through much of Thursday afternoon and evening while enhanced by divergence on the southeast side of the upper vortex that moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Although the thunderstorm activity has relaxed over the last few hours... the bands of activity are showing increased curvature in the western Caribbean. Therefore still expecting the maximum surface spin along this surface trough to materialize offshore of northern Honduras soon... as previously forecast in full post #22 (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-22)

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