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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #19

Updated: Jun 17

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...UPDATE...MONDAY JUNE 17 2024 12:49 PM EDT...

The following update applies to the system tagged as area of interest #5 in this blog post. Satellite imagery over much of the last 24 hours shows the broad tropical low pressure that has been parked over the southern Yucatan peninsula is now moving into the eastern Bay of Campeche while becoming substantially better-defined and organized. As a result the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Bay of Campeche has significantly increased. The primary hazard with this system remains potential for flash flooding induced by ongoing periods of heavy rainfall across western Central America and southeastern Mexico. The potential for tropical cyclone impacts... such as gusty wind and coast surf... are increasing primarily for the Mexican province of Veracruz. My next full update on this developing situation and the rest of the Atlantic tropics will be posted later today.


...SUNDAY JUNE 16 2024 3:26 AM EDT...


The Atlantic tropics remain active for mid-June while still monitoring concurrent areas of interest as follows:


See area of interest #5 section below for more information on possible tropical cyclone formation in the days ahead from what is currently the broad surface low pressure area centered over the southern Yucatan peninsula. See area of interest #6 below for more information on a tropical disturbance forecast to develop in the western Atlantic while triggered by a cut-off upper vortex... with the disturbance likely headed for the northwestern Bahamas and Florida peninsula by Friday after it materializes.


AREA OF INTEREST #5... Satellite animation continues to confirm that a broad surface low pressure area persists over the southern Yucatan peninsula while continuing to show cyclonic turning in the region... with cyclonic turning seen as far west as the eastern Bay of Campeche. The focus of this disturbance has moved away from western Cuba and southern Florida as much of the southeastern US upper vorticity that produced the thunderstorms in that region has been swept away from this disturbance and into the current western Atlantic upper trough. Instead this disturbance has seen an increase in thunderstorms across its circulation which covers parts of southeastern Mexico... western Central America... and the far eastern Pacific. The recovery of this disturbance is also likely due to the fact the western Gulf upper vorticity which was suppressing northwestern outflow and inducing some shear is beginning to lift northward and away while becoming captured by the current upper trough moving into the central US. For the timeframe that is now the next 48 hours... I continue to forecast that the improving upper air pattern will cause the southern Yucatan surface low to mature into a better-defined center that can then be steered westward into the Bay of Campeche by the southwest quadrant of the surface ridge currently over the Great Lakes region of North America. Noting through 96 hours my forecast track remains angled south toward southern Veracruz instead of further north toward the ridge weakness associated with the western North America frontal system as the core of the regional tropical upper ridge will tend to lag behind to the east while slowly moving back toward the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the departed western Gulf upper vorticity... with many of the models allowing the maximal outflow at the upper ridge core to drop surface pressures to the east of this area of interest through day 4 (for example reference the 1200Z CMC and 1800Z NAVGEM model runs in the computer model summary section below... which show a well-defined surface low pressure field in the wake of this area of interest). My forecast track assumption for now is that another steering surface low pressure gyre will materialize just east of this area of interest that would help keep the track of this area of interest dragged further south. It is even possible this adjacent gyre becomes yet another area of interest for the Bay of Campeche beyond day 4... stay tuned.


Regarding odds of tropical cyclone formation... in this update I have bumped my peak odds to 30% as thunderstorms have been increasing with the southern Yucatan surface low pressure field used to define this area of interest. This is not quiet as high as recent NHC tropical weather outlooks... waiting to see if the broad surface low pressure field indeed develops a better-defined center before considering higher odds.


Regardless of whether or not this area of interest develops into a tropical cyclone... ongoing periods of heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential are likely across western Central America and southeastern Mexico in the days ahead.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 17)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southwestern Yucatan peninsula near 19N-90W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 18)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern Bay of Campeche near 19.5N-92W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 19)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Bay of Campeche near 19.8N-95W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 20)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Veracruz near 19.8N-97W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 AM EDT***************************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 0%

Formation chance through 7 days... 60%


AREA OF INTEREST #6... Much of the upper trough and surface front that absorbed the previous tropical area of interest offshore of the United States east coast is now positioned over the western Atlantic. Noting in my previous update on June 11 that the southern part of this upper trough has been forecast to become a cut-off upper vortex... and was potentially watching for the previous tropical area of interest to potentially make a comeback as a tropical system while enhanced by the divergence zone of the cut-off vortex... see area of interest #4 section from previous birdseye view post #15 (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-15). Currently the previous tropical area of interest is located off to the north as a frontal low offshore of the northeastern US and Atlantic Canada... however the usually reliable GFS/ECWMF consensus has suddenly converged on a solution where the eastern divergence zone of the cut-off upper vortex produces a new western Atlantic tropical disturbance between Bermuda and the northern Caribbean Islands... therefore the National Hurricane Center has declared a new area of interest for the western Atlantic in recent tropical weather outlooks. This is now the sixth tropical Atlantic area of interest that will be tracked on this site this year.


The models have long suggested the southern part of the western Atlantic upper trough becomes cut-off and seperated from the rest of the trough due to the strength of the tropical upper ridge currently over area of interest #5 plus the strength of the upper ridge now building over eastern North America that is associated with the warm sector of the current western North America surface frontal system. The GFS/ECMWF consensus is then for the upper vortex and surface tropical disturbance to retrograde west-northwest toward the northwestern Bahamas and Florida peninsula while both features are caught in deep-layer east-southeasterly flow on the south side of the eastern North America upper ridge and also the current surface ridge now approaching from the Great Lakes region of North America. I agree with the NHC already assigning tropical cyclone formation odds as high as 30% for this new area of interest due to the sudden agreement in the usually-reliable GFS/ECMWF consensus in showing some development. I do not agree with odds higher than 30% as there is some potential the surface disturbance moves underneath the northeast quadrant of the upper vortex by day 5 where supportive divergence is currently forecast to be absent.


I recommend interests across the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula be aware of potential heavy rain and gusty wind impacts from this disturbance by Friday.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 17)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 26N-67.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 18)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 26N-65W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 19)... 15% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 26N-68W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 20)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 27N-71.5W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 21)... 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east-northeast of the northwestern Bahamas near 27.5N-76W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 2 AM EDT***************************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 0%

Formation chance through 7 days... 30%


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


1200Z (Jun 15) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... through 30 hours the current surface low over the southern Yucatan peninsula has an WNW/ESE elongated signature while developing an ESE center just offshore of Honduras that features a trough extending WNW into the Bay of Campeche... the ESE center becomes the dominant and moves WNW across the Yucatan and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through 72 hours... tropical cylcone formation suggested just offshore of Tamaulipas/Veracruz border at 108 hours... landfall and inland dissipation shown shortly thereafter

**For area of interest #6... no development shown

**Broad low pressure field persists across Bay of Campeche... western Caribbean... and adjacent regions in wake of area of interest #5 (108 to 138 hours)... western Caribbean portion of circulation becomes the dominant and moves across the northern Yucatan and reaches the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula thorugh 156 hours... western Gulf tropical cyclone formation suggested near 24N-94W at 168 hours

**Vigrous tropical wave of low pressure emerges from west coast of Africa at 150 hours and passes south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands through 168 hours


0000Z (Jun 15) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... through 54 hours the current surface low over the southern Yucatan peninsula has an WNW/ESE elongated signature while spanning from the Bay of Campeche to the western Caribbean Sea... slowly organizes into a tropical low that makes landfall across the Tamaulipas/Veracruz border at 126 hours

**For area of interest #6... south part of current western Atlantic upper trough becomes a cut-off vortex north-northeast of the Dominican Republic through 72 hours due to the force of warm upper ridging over eastern North America (associated with warm sector of western North America frontal system) and also due to force of the tropical upper ridge cell over AOI #5... upper vortex subsequently retrogrades around south side of eastern North America upper ridge and toward northwestern Bahamas where its divergence zone triggers a tropical surface low just north of the northwestern Bahamas at 132 hours... tropical low subsequently makes landfall at the Florida/Georgia border at 150 hours


1200Z (Jun 15) ECMWF Model Run...

**Fore area of interest #5... through 54 hours the current surface low over the southern Yucatan peninsula has an WNW/ESE elongated signature while spanning from the Bay of Campeche to the western Caribbean Sea... slowly organizes into a north-south elongated tropical low in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through 72 hours... north side of tropical low develops a circular center that makes landfall in Tamaulipas (northeastern Mexico) through 102 hours with the remainder southern portion of circulation making landfall as a trough across the Veracruz coast through 120 hours.

**For area of interest #6... south part of current western Atlantic upper trough becomes a cut-off vortex north-northeast of the Dominican Republic through 60 hours due to the force of warm upper ridging over eastern North America (associated with warm sector of western North America frontal system) and also due to force of the tropical upper ridge cell over AOI #5... upper vortex subsequently retrogrades around south side of eastern North America upper ridge and toward northwestern Bahamas where its divergence zone triggers a tropical surface low over the northwestern Bahamas at 114 hours... tropical surface low moves across south Florida through 126 hours... then moves WNW across northeastern Gulf of Mexico and into southeastern Louisiana through 150 hours


1800Z (Jun 15) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... through 42 hours the current surface low over the southern Yucatan peninsula has an WNW/ESE elongated signature while spanning from the Bay of Campeche to the western Caribbean Sea... WNW part of the circulation becomes the dominant and develops into a western Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone at 84 hours near 23N-96W... tropical cyclone weakens to remnant trough while approaching landfall with southern Tamaulipas through 120 hours (upper-level winds are favorable for development in the model run... speculate the weakening prior to landfall due to competition for surface inflow with other swirls of low pressure associated with the broad low pressure area it developed within)

**For area of interest #6... southwest part of current western Atlantic upper trough becomes a cut-off vortex south of Bermuda through 48 hours due to the force of warm upper ridging over eastern North America (associated with warm sector of western North America frontal system) and also due to force of the tropical upper ridge cell over AOI #5... eastern divergence zone of the cut-off vortex producs a surface low near 26N-66W also at 48 hours... while moving west the surface low becomes a tropical cyclone near 26N-70W at 78 hours... as a compact and potential hurricane the tropical cyclone makes landfall on northeast coast of Florida at 117 hours... weakens to a compact inland tropical storm whose center moves into the Florida/Alabama/Georgia border through 129 hours... remnant low dissipates over east-central Mississippi thorugh 144 hours.

**Eastern divergence zone of current western Atlantic upper trough suggested to produce a tropical cyclone near 35N-51W by 48 hours (however water temps below 26 deg C and upper air temps forecast to be warm and stabilizing with 200 mb heights above 1200 dekameters)... segment of nearby upper trough and sugegsted tropical cyclone move east-northeast to 36N-47W through 72 hours... the surface circulation subsequently becomes captured by surface ridge induced by the convergence zone of the upper trough which causes it to retrograde west-southwest after 72 hours... the surface circulation weakens from a potential tropical cyclone to a surface trough through 108 hours while located near 35N-48W as the nearby segment of the upper trough evolves into an overhead cut-off upper vortex where a lack of divergence suppresses the surface circulation.

**Upper vortex that triggers AOI #6 retrogrades into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through 108 hours where the southeastern divergence zone of the vortex triggers a south-central Caribbean disturbance... the disturbance matures into a tropical cyclone offshore of northeastern Nicaragua through 123 hours as the westward-retrograding upper vortex gives room for an expanding area of anticyclonic outflow over the disturbance... tropical cyclone continues west-northwest and makes landfall just north of the Mexico/Belize border at 150 hours... landfall causes the tropical cyclone to degenerate into a broad tropical low that continues west across the northern Bay of Campeche through 168 hours


1800Z (Jun 15) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #5... Southern part of the current broad tropical low centered over the southern Yucatan peninsula becomes an eastern Pacific trpoical cyclone at 18 hours located just southwest of the Mexico/Guatemala border... tropical cyclone moves northeast and weakens to an inland remnant low over northern Guatemala through 48 hours while orbiting the remainder of the broad circulation... remnant low then arcs north-northwest across the western Yucatan peninsula and into the western Gulf of Mexico through 78 hours where it then loses its identity within the east side of the remainder broad circulation... the remainder broad circulation then continues west into the Veracruz and Tamaulipas coast of Mexico through 126 hours as an elongated surface trough.

**For area of interest #6... no development shown

***Broad low pressure field persists across Bay of Campeche... western Caribbean... and adjacent regions in wake of area of interest #5 (108 to 132 hours)... the western part of this broad circulation becomes a large western Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone centered near 23N-96W at 162 hours

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