*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...MONDAY JUNE 10 2024 3:15 PM EDT...
A surface trough of low pressure remains stationary over the Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico. Over the next 48 hours this feature has potential to expand across the Gulf of Mexico as the regional tropical upper ridge and associated supporting outflow is now expanding in the wake of nearby upper vorticity to the northeast that has shifted eastward and away. During this time the Gulf of Mexico surface low pressure field is also likely to merge with the tail end of the surface front currently approaching from the southeastern United States... extending the surface low pressure field across northern Florida and waters offshore of the southeastern United States. After 48 hours... the upper vorticity currently approaching from Arizona and New Mexico arrives into the southeastern United States and interacts with the sprawling surface low pressure field:
(1) The models are settling on the maximum upper divergence region of the upper vorticity being over the waters offshore of the southeastern United States... therefore will be watching to see if the northeastern part of the broad surface low pressure field evolves into a tropical disturbance at this location in approximately 72 hours. Anything that develops in this location is likely to accelerate northeastward parallel to the United States Atlantic shoreline while becoming embedded in the flow ahead of the next surface cold front that pushes offshore from the eastern US in 5+ days (energy from the north fracture of the current western North America upper trough... eastern fracture of the current northeastern Pacific vortex... and some energy from the current north Canada polar upper vortex merges into an upper trough whose divergence zone supports the next surface cold front).
(2) In the long range (beyond 72 hours)... what happens with the lingering southeastern United States upper vorticity and remainder Gulf of Mexico surface low pressure field is not yet settled. Some model runs (such as today's 0600Z NAVGEM and 0000Z CMC) suggests the upper vorticity develops another upper divergence zone that induces a tropical disturbance in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The solutions from the 0000Z ECMWF and 0600Z GFS are more complicated while waiting for the arrival of the southern fracture of the current western North America upper trough (currently offshore of California and Mexico's Baja California peninsula) into the central US... which takes some time to happen as the current northeastern Pacific upper vortex and northern Canada polar upper vortex first have to merge to increase steering upper-westerly flow across the western and central US. Once the central US upper trough arrives... it will help pull the stranded southeastern US upper vorticity away from the Gulf of Mexico by day 7 which would allow for the regional tropical upper ridge and its outflow to recover. In response... the GFS/ECMWF long-term consensus suggests the remainder Gulf of Mexico surface low pressure field transforms into a broad western Gulf tropical low with multiple centers by day 7.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Jun 10) CMC Model Run...
**Surface trough currently over the Yucatan peninsula evolves into north-south elongated surface trough across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through 48 hours... northeastern part of the trough moves across northern Florida and evolves into a surface low offshore of the southeastern United States through 72 hours... surface low continues northeast to 35N-70.5W through 120 hours where it intensifies into a possible tropical cyclone... through 162 hours rapidly accelerates northeast and transitions into a vigorous non-tropical frontal cyclone crossing eastern Newfoundland.
**Remaining southern portion of eastern Gulf of Mexico surface trough (feature at 48 hours) proceeds to drift slowly north and evolves into a tropical low offshore of the western Florida panhandle through 168 hours
0000Z (Jun 10) ECMWF Model Run...
**Surface trough currently over the Yucatan peninsula drifts west across Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico through 168 hours without further development
**Tail end of surface front attached to the current broad eastern Canada frontal low decays into a surface trough offshore of northeastern Florida through 66 hours... surface trough breifly evolves into a surface low near 30.5N-78W through 90 hours after which time it loses identity to next surface front that pushes offshore from the eastern US at 120+ hours.
0600Z (Jun 10) GFS Model Run...
**Surface trough currenty over the Yucatan peninsula drifts west across the western Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche through 168 hours where it gradually evolves into a broad tropical low with multiple centers.
0600Z (Jun 10) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Over next 54 hours surface trough over the Yucatan peninsula merges with tail end of surface front attached to the current broad eastern Canada frontal low... northeastern part of merger evolves into a potentially tropical low near 30N-76.5W through 84 hours... while accelerating north toward the North Carolina Outer Banks the tropical low loses its identity to next surface front that pushes offshore from the eastern US through 120 hours.
**Remaining southern portion of merged surface trough (feature at 54 hours) proceeds to drift slowly north and evolves into a tropical low that moves into the Florida Panhandle's Big Bend region by 156 hours.
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