MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #13

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********

...SUNDAY JUNE 9 2024 5:10 AM EDT...

A surface trough of low pressure remains stationary over the Yucatan peninsula of southeastern Mexico. The ongoing model consensus suggests the surface trough has potential to evolve into a broad Gulf of Mexico tropical low in the days ahead once the upper vorticity currently just to the north shifts eastward and away... which will allow the supporting tropical upper ridge and associated outflow to expand. In approximately 4+ days the upper vorticity currently parked over northwestern Mexico is forecast to push into the Gulf of Mexico. The configuration of this upper vorticity when it arrives into the Gulf is currently not settled... however should the vorticity have a focused instead of elongated upper divergence zone it would help the forecast Gulf of Mexico broad tropical low develop a better-defined center necessary for tropical development. Should future forecasts trend that way... may be declaring a tropical area of interest for the Gulf of Mexico in the days ahead.

Elsewhere... the surface tropical wave of low pressure that was located near 44W in the previous update has notably weakened while crossing underneath the suppressive string of upper vorticity in the region positioned near 50W longitude. After this vorticity string dissipates over the next 48 hours... the current string of vorticity in the western Atlantic has potential to make its way toward the Atlantic tropical belt (between Africa and the Lesser Antilles) while pushed by mid-latitude central Atlantic warm core upper ridging that flares up due to northward warm air transport associated with the currently broad eastern Canada frontal system. Therefore the Atlantic tropical belt is likely to remain calm over the next few days.

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).

0000Z (Jun 9) CMC Model Run...

**Surface trough currently over the Yucatan peninsula evolves into north-south elongated surface trough across the central Gulf of Mexico through 120 hours... northeastern part of surface trough expands across northern Florida and then evolves into a frontal low offshore offshore of the southeastern US through 144 hours... frontal low located offshore of North Carolina by 168 hours

1200Z (Jun 8) ECMWF Model Run...

**Surface trough currently over the Yucatan peninsula evolves into north-south elongated surface trough across the western Gulf of Mexico through 168 hours

0000Z (Jun 9) GFS Model Run...

**Surface trough currently over the Yucatan peninsula evovles into a southwest-northeast elongated tropical low spread across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through 144 hours... while drifting north the tropical low becomes more circular with well-defined center near 25.5N-85.5W by 168 hours

0000Z (Jun 9) NAVGEM Model Run...

**Surface trough currently over the Yucatan peninsula evovles into a southwest-northeast trough spread across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through 132 hours... east end of the trough evolves into a tropical cyclone while swinging north just offshore of the Florida east coast and is located near 30.8N-80.2W by 168 hours.