*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...FRIDAY JUNE 7 2024 11:45 PM EDT...
The surface low pressure field that was over the western Caribbean Sea has now moved into the Yucatan peninsula as a broad surface trough. The latest model consensus from the CMC... GFS... and NAVGEM suggests the surface trough has potential to evolve into a broad Gulf of Mexico tropical low in the days ahead once the upper vorticity currently just to the north shifts eastward and away... which will allow the supporting tropical upper ridge and associated outflow to expand. In approximately 5+ days the upper vorticity currently parked over Mexico's Baja California peninsula is forecast to push into the Gulf of Mexico. The configuration of this upper vorticity when it arrives into the Gulf is currently not settled... however should the vorticity have a focused instead of elongated upper divergence zone it would help the forecast Gulf of Mexico broad tropical low develop a better-defined center necessary for tropical development. Should future forecasts trend that way... may be declaring a tropical area of interest for the Gulf of Mexico in the days ahead.
Elsewhere... a surface tropical wave of low pressure that emerged into the tropical belt of the Atlantic from Africa on June 2 is currently located in the vicinity of 8.5N-44W... where it is currently producing a better-defined area of rotation along with bands of thunderstorms across its northern side. The tropical wave has recently been taking advantage of an improving upper outflow pattern developing in the wake of the currently weakening central Atlantic upper vorticity string... however the wave is forecast to move directly under the suppressing upper vorticity string (in the vicnity of 50W longitude) in the next 24 hours and therefore I have not upgraded the wave to an area of interest at this time. By 48 and 72 hours... as the wave moves toward the southern Lesser Antilles island chain... will watch to see if the wave becomes an area of interest as it then potentially recovers under low shear and outflow forecast to be present after it passes through the dissipating upper vorticity string. Once the wave moves across the eastern Caribbean in 72 to 120 hours... its time as a potential and short-lived area of interest is likely to come to an end as the large-scale upper vorticity current over eastern North America pushes offshore into the western Atlantic and eastern Caribbean region where it would induce increased westerly vertical shear.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
1200Z (Jun 7) CMC Model Run...
**Surface trough currently in vicinity of Yucatan peninsula drifts west into the Bay of Campeche then becomes quasi-stationary through 168 hours
1200Z (Jun 7) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)
1800Z (Jun 7) GFS Model Run...
**Surface trough currently in vicinity of Yucatan peninsula gradually evolves into a broad tropical low centered at the Belize/Mexico/Guatemala through 126 hours... divergence zone of upper vorticity arriving from its current Baja California position expands the broad tropical low northward across the Gulf of Mexico through 141 hours... the broad tropical low subsequently shifts northeastward toward the Florida peninsula under the influnce of the upper vorticity through 168 hours but without tropical cyclone formation while elongated featuring multiple centers
1200Z (Jun 7) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Surface trough currently in vicinity of Yucatan peninsula drifts west into the Bay of Campeche then becomes quasi-stationary through 168 hours
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