*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
…UPDATE… FRIDAY NOVEMBER 8 2024 6:30 AM EDT...
Overnight as wind shear over Rafael reduced… the hurricane regained category 3 major hurricane status while continuing west into the south-central Gulf of Mexico offshore off the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula. As of 4 AM EDT Rafael was packing 120 mph maximum sustained winds with 956 mb minimum surface pressure… and was centered at 24.5N-88W. Over next 36 hours continuing to watch for building coastal surf for the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula and the south-facing US Gulf coast as Rafael keeps hurricane strength… see Rafael section below for more information on the hurricane including a longer term outlook.
...THURSDAY NOVEMBER 7 2024 11:30 PM EDT...
This special update provides a briefing on Hurricane Rafael in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the area of disturbed weather (area of interest #48) near the northern Caribbean Islands while I have had a lot of personal life commitments preventing me from doing a full update today. Also note the upper-level vortex interacting with area of interest #48 is expected to retrograde west across the northern Caribbean. As the upper vortex begins to collapse from its prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... while reaching the northwestern Caribbean… the expanding upper outflow that occurs in the south-central Caribbean in the wake of the collapsing upper vortex could help trigger yet another south-central Caribbean tropical disturbance in the wake of Rafael and area of interest #48 in the days ahead. Will add a new area of interest in the south-central Caribbean in future updates if needed.
Satellite image… surface chart… and upper air chart valid for late Wednesday and early Thursday:
HURRICANE RAFAEL... More recent satellite image of Hurricane Rafael holding on to category 2 status in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as of 1936Z Thursday:
After making landfall in western Cuba as a category 3 hurricane late Wednesday… the land interaction weakened it to a category 2. The upper ridge that was previously over the eastern US has moved offshore… and since then Rafael while in the SE Gulf of Mexico dealt with upper southwesterly flow between the offshore upper ridge and pair of upper troughs ejecting from western North America. The shear imparted by the upper southwesterlies has been enough to keep Rafael from re-strengthening while in the SE Gulf of Mexico… but has not been strong enough to weaken the hurricane either. Due to the strength of the offshore upper ridge… the first of the two aforementioned upper troughs has already moved NE into the east coast of Canada and the second of the two is undergoing a split while the north half is continuing east around the upper ridge while over central Canada and the second of the two is stuck west of the upper ridge and over the SW US. The aforementioned pair of of eastern/central Canadian upper trough fragments are merging… with the southwestern convergence zone of the merged upper trough producing a new surface ridge over the eastern US now strong enough to allow Rafael to turn slowly west across the southern Gulf of Mexico instead of continuing NW toward the US Gulf coast… and the threat there of direct impacts from Rafael in the short-term has ended (long-term still uncertain)… kudos to the ECMWF model which has this solution first before the other global models. Meanwhile the eastern divergence zone of the stuck upper trough over the SW US is beginning to produce a new frontal low over Texas… and warm southerly flow ahead of the frontal low will soon reduce shear over Rafael by building a warm core upper ridge in the central Gulf of Mexico. Because Rafael’s south adjusted short-term track allows it to track into the core of the new upper ridge… that means rather low shear over Rafael through 48 hours as it continues to slip west across the southern Gulf of Mexico… and Rafael should now hold on to hurricane strength through that time. After 48 hours shear increases as the stuck SW US upper trough finally shifts east toward the Gulf and eastern US… which should weaken Rafael to a tropical storm. The models are split on which way weakening tropical storm Rafael goes in the long range… with the ECMWF sending it south toward the Mexico Bay of Campeche coast due to the cyclonic flow of the remnant trough of area of interest #48 incoming from the east… and other models sending it north toward the US Gulf coast while pulled by the surface frontal system associated with the upper trough ejecting from the SW US.
Regarding impacts to land areas… over the next day or so building coastal surf is likely for the north coast of the Yucatan peninsula and the south-facing US Gulf coast as Rafael keeps hurricane strength. Interests along the south-facing US Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Florida panhandle and Bay of Campeche Mexico coast should monitor Rafael for possible tropical storm impacts beyond 48 hours as it is uncertain if the tropical cyclone turns south or north in the long range.
AREA OF INTEREST #48... More recent satellite image of area of interest as of 1930Z Thursday:
As expected in previous update #113 (https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-113)… a surface trough of low pressure has formed just north of the Caribbean Islands and is surging west toward the Bahamas while in deep-layer easterly flow between deep-layer ridging to the north and an upper vortex to the south. So far the upper vortex has kept this system from organizing further while preventing southern upper outflow… however watching to see if the north apex of the surface trough manages to take advantage of the outflow supplied by the upper layers of the ridging to the north. Interests across the Bahamas and Florida peninsula should therefore monitor the progress of this area of interest for possible impacts this weekend… noting by the late part of this weekend and into Monday this system is most likely to make a north turn over or near the Florida peninsula while encountering the flow ahead of a surface frontal system and associated upper trough ejecting from the SW US (see Rafael section above for more info on that system)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Nov 7) CMC Model Run...
**For Hurricane Rafael... moves west-northwest across the Gulf of Mexico while weakening and reaches 27N-93W at 72 hours as a tropical storm... reverses to a northeast track and makes landfall over southeastern Louisiana at 96 hours... subsequently merges with incoming front from the west and moves east-northeast across the southeastern US as a remnant frontal low which loses its identity over SE Georgia by 120 hours
**For area of interest #48... north apex of surface trough evolves into a tropical low near 23N-70W (northeast of the SE Bahamas) by 48 hours... continues west into the northwestern Bahamas by 96 hours while weakening back to a surface trough... while turning north ahead of the surface cold front that absorbs Rafael the remnant trough then turns north in the waters offshore of the east coast of Florida and loses identity to the incoming front by 120 hours.
**South part of surface trough associated with AOI #48 proceeds west across the Caribbean and evolves into a broad tropical low located just SSW of Jamaica by 114 hours... through 168 hours the broad tropical low becomes quasi-stationary and increasingly elongated north-south while merging with tail end of offshore-moving cold front that absorbs Rafael
0000Z (Nov 7) ECMWF Model Run...
**For Hurricane Rafael... turns west across the southern Gulf of Mexico and quickly weakens to a tropical storm while reaching the southwestern Gulf of Mexico near 23N-95W at 90 hours... tropical storm then dives south-southwest and weakens to a remnant low while making landfall on the eastern Veracruz coast at 126 hours... remnant low dissipates shortly thereafter
**For area of interest #48... no development shown
**Tropical low develops in south-central Caribbean by 168 hours
**Surface frontal system develops over central US through 72 hours... tail end of surface front later moves offshore into the western Atlantic from the eastern US and becomes a possible multi-center subtropical low located southeast of Bermuda by 168 hours
0600Z (Nov 7) GFS Model Run...
**For Hurricane Rafael... turns west into the open central Gulf of Mexico (near 25.5N-91.2W) through 54 hours while gradually weakening to a category 1 hurricane... while meandering in the vicinity of this location through 126 hours weakens to a tropical storm... afterwards drifts slowly south then slowly west into the western Gulf of Mexico through 168 hours while weakening further to a surface trough
**For area of interest #48... no development shown
**Surface frontal system develops over central US through 66 hours... tail end of surface front later moves offshore into the western Atlantic from the eastern US and becomes a possible tropical low northeast of the southeastern Bahamas by 168 hours
1200Z (Nov 7) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For Hurricane Rafael... moves west-northwest into the northwest Gulf of Mexico thru 60 hours while weakening to a tropical storm… turns NNE into south-central Louisiana through 72 hours… inland remnant low merges with incoming frontal system from the west and loses identity along front while moving ENE into the Carolinas by 102 hours
**For area of interest #48… surface trough/low continues west into the SE Bahamas by 48 hours… then across central and western Cuba through 78 hours… then turns north into the Florida peninsula through 96 hours where it loses its identity to same surface front that absorbs Rafael
**South part of surface trough associated with AOI #48 proceeds west across the Caribbean and evolves into a tropical low near 11.5N-80.5W by 72 hours… tropical low moves slowly NW into the Nicaragua/Honduras border through 132 hours where it then dissipates due to land interaction.
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