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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #11

Writer's picture: NCHurricane2009NCHurricane2009

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...THURSDAY JUNE 6 2024 12:06 PM EDT...

A rather broad surface low pressure field currently covers the central and western Caribbean Sea... Central America... the Cayman Islands... Jamaica... and Cuba while supported by the outflow of the tropical upper ridge currently in the region. The northern reaches of the surface low pressure field are supported by divergence between the northwesterlies arcing around the east side of the upper ridge and westerlies streaming across upper vorticity/troughs lying just to the north. Over the last few days the CMC and GFS models suggested that a divergence zone ahead of the upper vorticity could enhance a portion of the broad surface low pressure field into a possible tropical cyclone. However this is not currently occurring... instead the latest emerging model consensus from the CMC... GFS... and now the NAVGEM is that the broad surface low may later develop over the next several days once the upper vorticity retreats to the east which will allow the supporting tropical upper ridge and its outflow to expand. Any development that does occur is expected to be very gradual as the broad surface low pressure field would need time to consolidate into a better-defined center necessary for tropical development.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Jun 6) CMC Model Run...

**Through 114 hours the currently broad low pressure area in western Caribbean becomes better-organized just northwest of the Yucatan peninsula... subsequently accelerates northeast across Florida peninsula through 168 hours without tropical cyclone formation while staying elongated with multiple centers.


0000Z (Jun 6) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)


0600Z (Jun 6) GFS Model Run...

**Through 129 hours the currenlty broad low pressure area in western Caribbean becomes better-defined just offshore of Belize and Honduras... the broad tropical low remains large in size (covering adjacent land areas and far eastern Pacific) and stationary through 168 hours.


0600Z (Jun 6) NAVGEM Model Run...

**Through 168 hours the currently broad low pressure area in western Caribbean drifts across the Yucatan peninsula and becomes better defined in the Bay of Campeche.

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