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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #106

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23 2024 11:15 PM EDT...

For the mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic... the upper vorticity offshore of the southeastern United States is now merging with an upper trough approaching from eastern Canada... with the merger to result in an amplified upper trough in the region. The divergence zone of the materializing upper trough has transitioned the remnant low of Oscar into a developing frontal cyclone centered southwest of Bermuda as of this writing. The frontal cyclone will quickly continue north-northeast toward southeastern Newfoundland through 48 hours or so. A surface front will then continue in the western/central Atlantic in the wake of the frontal cyclone afterwards. While the amplified nature of the materializing upper trough may help keep wind shear levels low on its east side... the models are not quiet in agreement that the divergence zone of the upper trough will be focused enough to allow for a well-defined surface low pressure center that can focus thunderstorm activity within the frontal cyclone... or along the surface front that lingers in the cyclone's wake. Therefore tropical development is not expected in the mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic… regardless inclement weather and rough seas will occur for Bermuda... Newfoundland... and surrounding waters within the next 48 hours due to the frontal cyclone.


For the mid-latitudes of the eastern Atlantic... the central Atlantic upper vorticity currently along 40W longitude is forecast to become a cut-off amplified upper trough/vortex in the eastern Atlantic in response to the development of a northeast Atlantic deep-layer ridge (the deep-layer ridge materializes when the current warm core western Atlantic upper ridge wave to be bolstered by the warm southerly surface flow ahead of ex-Oscar becomes stacked over the strong surface ridge currently over the northwest Atlantic... as both ridges shift east). The low shear on the east side of the amplifying upper trough/vortex... combined with a potentially focused upper divergence zone... could trigger a surface tropical disturbance in the open eastern Atlantic in the days ahead... will add an area of interest in the eastern Atlantic in future updates if needed.


For the Caribbean Sea... a surface tropical wave of low pressure has recently entered the eastern Caribbean while another is following behind while recently crossing 47W longitude. The surface waves have potential to interact with the persisting regional upper ridge/anticyclone which will supply an environment of low shear plus upper outflow that could boost thunderstorms... potentially resulting in a new Caribbean disturbance that may need to be monitored for tropical development in the days ahead.

  

...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


1200Z (Oct 23) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Oct 23) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


1800Z (Oct 23) GFS Model Run...

**Upper vorticity currently in the central Atlantic shifts east with its eastern divergence zone contributing to a surface trough near 31N-35W at 30 hours... current NW Atlantic surface evolves into northeast Atlantic deep-layer ridge that pushes the surface trough west to 30N-41W through 48 hours where it evolves into surface low with possible tropical characteristics... while continuing to move around the deep-layer ridge the surface low moves north to 42N-41.5W through 96 hours where it merges with cold front driven toward it by ex-Oscar… the remand frontal low then continues into open northeast Atlantic (midway between Iceland and the Azores) where it loses its identity by 138 hours

**Tropical low forms in the central Caribbean near 14.5N-78.8W at 156 hours… tropical cyclone formation suggested near 15.5N-79W by 168 hours


1200Z (Oct 23) NAVGEM Model Run…

**South part of current North Atlantic surface frontal system and upper trough becomes a cut-off deep-layer cyclone SW of the British Isles through 48 hours due to force of deep-layer ridge moving into the NE Atlantic… deep-layer cyclone dives south offshore of Portugal and into waters between Canary Islands and Morocco through 96 hours… while quasi-stationary here through 168 hours the surface layer of the cyclone potentially acquires tropical characteristics due to cold de-stabilizing temps of upper layer of deep-layer cyclone.

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