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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2024 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #10

Writer's picture: NCHurricane2009NCHurricane2009

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...WEDNESDAY JUNE 5 2024 12:35 PM EDT...

A surface trough of low pressure... formerly a front attached to the ongoing northwestern Atlantic deep-layer frontal low... is strung west-southwest to east-northeast for several hundred miles from the northern Caribbean islands to the open central Atlantic while supported by the divergence zone of an upper trough continuing to swing east across the western Atlantic. It could be argued this axis of low surface pressures extends as far southwest as the western Caribbean and Central America as the regional tropical upper ridge and its upper outflow that supports low surface pressures has expanded back into the western Caribbean from the eastern Pacific in the wake of the now departing western Atlantic upper trough:

(1) The northeastern part of this axis of low surface pressures has developed a surface low near 31N-54W as of 0600Z today... but does not contain organized thunderstorm activity and thus tropical development is not expected. A strong burst of thunderstorms that raced eastward to the north of the Caribbean Islands for much of yesterday has developed into a second surface low near 23N-61.5W as of 0600Z today... however this system has since lost its thunderstorm burst while under increased wind shear associated with the approach of the western Atlantic upper trough and tropical development is not expeted here either.

(2) The surface tropical wave of low pressure that was at 72W longitude yesterday has since lost its identity to the aforementioned western Caribbean-to-Central America portion of the surface low pressure axis. Noting previous CMC and GFS model runs developed this area while having the current east Texas upper vortex and southern portion of the current central North America upper trough sag south toward the region and enhance this area with an upper divergence zone. While this upper-level energy is still forecast to sag south (under the influence of warm core southern US upper ridging to be supported by warm air transport ahead of forecast northeast Pacific frontal systems)... the latest model runs have trended with less energy and upper divergence making it toward the western Caribbean region... thus for now tropical development in this region has become less likely in the days ahead. Today's 0600Z GFS has instead elected to delay possible western Caribbean development while it waits for the upper-level energy to exit the region which would promote re-expanding upper outflow in its wake.


For the eastern and central tropical Atlantic... noting regional westerly wind shear is beginning to relax as the central Atlantic upper trough begins weakening from its prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air. However surface tropical waves of low pressure currently traversing this region have weakened to a more seasonable state while a blanket of dry Saharan air is keeping their associated thunderstorm activity suppressed... thus no tropical development is expected in this region in the days ahead.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Jun 5) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)


0000Z (Jun 5) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)


0600Z (Jun 5) GFS Model Run...

**Tropical wave currently at 57W longitude evolves into broad tropical low just offshore of northern Honduras at 144 hours and is quasi-stationary through 168 hours.


0600Z (Jun 5) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development in the Atlantic basin thru 168 hours (7 days)

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