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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #65A (Special Update)

Updated: Aug 30, 2023

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...UPDATE...WEDNESDAY AUGUST 30 2023 10:30 AM EDT...

Satellite image as of 1040Z of Hurricane Idalia making landfall near Keaton Beach Florida:

The following are recent events with Hurricane Idalia. Refer to the following link for more information on Idalia and tropical activity elsewhere in the Atlantic basin... https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-65

(1) 5 AM EDT... Idalia achieves its peak category 4 strength with 130 mph max sustained winds 940 mb surface central pressure

(2) 7 AM EDT... Doppler radar shows an eye wall replacement cycle is beginning... which allowed Idalia to weaken to a category 3 with 125 mph max sustained winds and 947 mb central surface pressure

(3) 7:45 AM EDT... The eye of Idalia makes landfall near Keaton Beach Florida... located just east of the Big Bend region of the far eastern Florida panhandle... still with 125 mph maximum sustained winds and surface pressure rising to 949 mb.

(4) 10:00 AM EDT... The center of Idalia is crossing the central part of the Florida/Georgia border with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph with 964 mb central pressure


The following are the strongest winds (in mph) at each of the following National Weather Service stations (weather.gov) recorded so far:

**Perry (far eastern FL panhandle).. sustained 62... gust 85... 8:15 AM EDT

**Tallahassee (far eastern FL panhandle)... sustained 30... gust 46... 8:53 AM EDT

**Apalachicola (eastern FL panhandle)... sustained 28... gust 41.. 4:53 AM EDT

**Cross City (northwest FL peninsula)... sustained 21... gust 40... 5:35 AM EDT (this weather station has an outage... it is possible higher winds have occurred since the outage started)

**Gainesville (north-central FL peninsula)... sustained 22... gust 49... 8:53 AM EDT

**Madison (northwest FL peninsula and just south of FL/GA border)... sustained 26... gust 52... 8:53 AM EDT

**Jacksonville (northeast FL)... sustained 26... gust 41... 7:53 AM EDT

**Daytona Beach (east-central FL)... sustained 17... gust 32... 9:53 AM EDT

**Tampa (west-central FL peninsula)... sustained 33... gust 53... 3:53 AM EDT

**Port Charlotte (southwest FL peninsula)... sustained 39... gust 58... 3:53 AM EDT

**Key West FL... sustained 28... gust 41... 9:53 AM EDT Monday

**Valdosta (south-central GA)... sustained 28... gust 67... 9:53 AM EDT

**Thomasville (southwestern GA)... sustained 25... gust 46... 9:55 AM EDT

**Albany (southwestern GA)... sustained 16... gust 28... 9:53 AM EDT

**Douglas (south-central GA)... sustained 24... gust 29... 9:55 AM EDT

**Waycross (southeastern GA)... sustained 16... gust 25... 9:55 AM EDT

**Brunswick (southeastern GA)... sustained 21... gust 44... 9:53 AM EDT

**Savannah (southeastern GA)... sustained 23... gust 30... 6:55 AM EDT


Regarding impact to land areas:

(1) As expected severe winds and coastal storm surge have hit the far eastern Florida panhandle and northwestern Florida peninsula region. Gusty winds with damage potential are now spreading across northeastern Florida and into the southeastern half of Georgia... along with coastal surf. Directional wind shear caused by surface southerly flow on Idalia's east side and upper southwesterly flow on top of Idalia will allow for possible tornadoes across the southeastern third of Georgia toward the coast. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential has also overspread this region. Outer southeastern bands of rain reach as far south as the central Florida peninsula where flash flooding may be also possible through the remainder of today.

(2) I recommend interests across South Carolina as well as eastern and central North Carolina to finish preparing by this afternoon for gusty winds and coastal surf to arrive by tomorrow. Heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential has already spread across South Carolina... and will reach central and eastern North Carolina by late today. Directional wind shear caused by surface southerly flow on Idalia's east side and upper southwesterly flow on top of Idalia will allow for possible tornadoes across South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina.

(3) With the south shift in the long-range track forecast... the potential for gusty winds across southeastern Virginia and southeastern Maryland have ended. However heavy rainfall and coastal surf remain likely by tomorrow.


...TUESDAY AUGUST 29 2023 4:10 PM EDT...

Satellite image of Hurricane Idalia as of 1951Z as it becomes better organized in the eastern Gulf of Mexico:

This is a special update to increase my intensity projection for Idalia based on recent observations that have occurred since full update #65 was published. Refer to the following link for update #65 for more information on Idalia and tropical activity elsewhere in the Atlantic basin... https://www.infohurricanes.com/post/my-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-birdseye-view-post-65


Wind shear across Idalia appears to have lessened early as the thunderstorm core has become more symmetrically distributed across the center of circulation. Moreover an eye feature is developing at the core... and Idalia is poised to rapidly intensify tonight and through tomorrow while approaching the northwestern Florida peninsula and far eastern Florida panhandle coastal region. Therefore I now forecast Idalia to acheive an intense category 4 peak with 150 mph maximum sustained winds before tomorrow's landfall. This is a developing emergency for the northwestern Florida peninsula and far eastern Florida panhandle coastal region due to potentially catastrophic coastal storm surge... and also potentially catastrophic wind damage near where the center of circulation makes landfall.


Regarding impact to land areas:

(1) For western Cuba... satellite imagery shows trailing bands of heavy rainfall traversing the region... additional rainfall accumulations are possible today. Coastal surf will gradually decrease as Idalia pulls northward and away.

(2) Interests across the Florida Keys and southern half of the Florida peninsula should have completed preparations for Idalia by now (for heavy rain... coastal surf... and gusty winds) as the storm is upon them... while interests across the northern Florida peninsula... eastern panhandle of Florida... and southeastern Georgia have a few more hours to prepare. Due to the current intensity forecast... the wind and coastal storm surge threat for the northwestern part of the Florida peninsula and far eastern part of the Florida panhandle has increased to potentially catastrophic levels... evacuate if ordered or recommended to do so by news media and your local government. Notable wind damage will likely spread inland across the northeastern part of the peninsula and southeastern Georgia.

(3) I recommend interests across South Carolina as well as eastern and central North Carolina to continue preparing for gusty winds... coastal surf... and heavy rainfall to arrive by Thursday.

(4) With the south shift in the long-range track forecast... the potential for gusty winds across southeastern Virginia and southeastern Maryland have ended. However heavy rainfall and coastal surf remain likely by Thursday.

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