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Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at 

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*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********

...SUNDAY AUGUST 20 2023 11:45 PM EDT...

Satellite image of newly-formed eastern Caribbean Tropical Storm Franklin as of 0240Z:

The following is a special update on the eastern Caribbean tropical wave of low pressure… tagged as area of interest #24 in full update #58… which has strengthened to Tropical Storm Franklin as of 5 PM EDT earlier today. Meanwhile see full update #58 at the following link for more information on other current tropical Atlantic systems…

New tropical storm Franklin was assessed to have 45 mph maximum sustained winds at 5 PM EDT… and as of 11 PM EDT has strengthened a little further to 50 mph maximum sustained winds.

The tropical storm is headed for a Tuesday through Wednesday passage across Haiti and the Dominican Republic where preparations for heavy rainfall with flash flood and mudslide potential… gusty winds… and coastal surf should now be underway. Due to Franklin tracking a little more northeast of the previous forecast and due to westerly shear that is already affecting the storm… the worst of the heavy rain and gusty winds will be further east toward the Dominican Republic. Also noting the tropical storm is producing quiet strong thunderstorms covering the center despite the shear… should this activity produce enough latent heat release and a shear-reducing warm core upper anticyclone it could strengthen more quickly to a high-end tropical storm or category 1 hurricane before the center makes landfall on the south coast of Haiti or the Dominican Republic… I recommend for the south coast to prepare for the winds and coastal surf of a category 1 just in case.

For the eastern Bahamas… the further northeast track of Franklin noted above and westerly shear pattern likely means heavy rainfall and gusty winds will stay east of the islands. However coastal surf is likely for the islands by Wednesday.

For Puerto Rico… the westerly shear pattern means Franklin’s eastern squalls will be pushed toward the island by Tuesday thru Wednesday. Rainfall flooding cannot be ruled out here.

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