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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #51

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...FRIDAY AUGUST 11 2023 12:30 AM EDT...

Over the last couple of days a tropical disturbance has been gradually materializing in the western Atlantic waters in the vicinity of the north coast of Haiti... the north coast of the Dominican Republic... and eastern Bahamas in an area of divergence and outflow in between a fragment of upper vorticity in the western Caribbean and upper vorticity in the central Atlantic. Upper winds may remain supportive for this tropical disturbance as the current southern US upper ridge approaches and overspreads the region with low shear and upper outflow. However the CIMSS 850 mb vorticity product (https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=) shows the low-level spin of the disturbance remains weak and as of late the showers and thunderstorms are scattered rather than concentrated. Therefore this disturbance may not have time to develop before being steered into a landfall with the Florida peninsula by the Atlantic surface ridge over the next 48 hours... not considering this disturbance as an area of interest for development at this time.


Elsewhere... the rest of the Atlantic tropics remain calm as suppressing upper vorticity is being pushed into the tropical latitudes by an amplifying western Atlantic upper ridge. By August 15 most of the upper vorticity is forecast to retrograde westward toward the Caribbean while continuing to be pushed around the upper ridge... allowing for the return of tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow in the eastern tropical Atlantic. This may allow for a passing surface tropical wave of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic to develop next week.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


1200Z (Aug 10) CMC Model Run...

**Large tropical low emerges from western Africa at 18 hours and passes over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands through 60 hours... develops a better-defined center near 14.5N-33W at 168 hours


1200Z (Aug 10) ECMWF Model Run...

**Large tropical low emerges from western Africa at 120 hours and passes over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands through 138 hours... located at 15N-34W at 168 hours


1800Z (Aug 10) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


1200Z (Aug 10) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)

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