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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #50

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...WEDNESDAY AUGUST 9 2023 1:39 PM EDT...

The Atlantic tropics are expected to remain calm over the next few days... with favorable conditions for tropical development returning to the eastern tropical Atlantic in the long range... as follows:

(1) In the short-term... development in the tropical belt of the Atlantic will remain suppressed by the ongoing dry Saharan air outbreak... followed by the arrival of the current suppressing upper vorticity string around 22.5N latitude as the vorticity string becomes pushed southward by the amplification of the current western Atlantic upper ridge. The warm core western Atlantic upper ridge is expected to amplify across the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic due to northward warm air transport ahead of frontal systems emerging from North America.

(2) By August 15... what is left of the suppressing upper vorticity is forecast to retrograde westward toward the Caribbean while pushed by the mid-latitude upper ridge. This will allow for tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow to return to the eastern tropical Atlantic... potentially allowing a passing surface tropical wave of low pressure in the eastern Atlantic to develop in the long range.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Aug 9) CMC Model Run...

**Large tropical low emerges from western Africa at 60 hours and passes over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 90 hours... develops a better-defined center just southwest of the islands at 102 hours... while continuing westward across the tropical belt of the Atlantic weakens to a large tropical wave crossing 41.5W longitude by 168 hours.


0000Z (Aug 9) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


0600Z (Aug 9) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 7 days (168 hours)


0600Z (Aug 9) NAVGEM Model Run...

**Large tropical low emerges from west coast of Mauritania at 120 hours... develops a better-defined center while passing just north of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands through 168 hours.

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