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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #27K (Special Update)


*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...SATURDAY JULY 1 2023 1:45 PM EDT...

The following is a special update on recent tropical activity in the Atlantic as I am currently on vacation. While on vacation I will continue to issue special updates on active disturbances or tropical cyclones when possible... meanwhile refer to the National Hurricane Center website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for up to the minute latest information on the Atlantic tropics.


Satellite image as of 1520Z July 1 showing current areas of interest (AOIs)… along with a simplified surface analysis of surface low pressures (Ls)… high pressure ridges (Hs)… and fronts (red lines) based on the NHC TAFB surface analysis at the time. Blue-dashed lines and Ls are used to mark the location of upper vorticity… blue zig-zag lines and Hs are used to mark the locations of upper ridging


AREA OF INTEREST #12 The surface low pressure passing east of Bermuda has lost thunderstorm activity while moving into waters below 26 deg C. As a result tropical cyclone formation of this feature is no longer anticipated. As the surface low continues north-northeast into open northwestern Atlantic waters over the next 96 hours… it is forecast to become absorbed by the frontal system currently over eastern Canada/ central US as that system later advances east toward the Atlantic. This is my final statement on this system on this blog.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...


0000Z (Jul 1) CMC Model Run...

**Tropical wave currently in central tropical Atlantic evolves into tropical low that moves into the central Lesser Antilles by 72 hours… tropical low opens back to a wave once it later moves across the Caribbean


0600Z (Jul 1) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 90 hours


0600Z (Jul 1) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


0600Z (Jul 1) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 144 hours (6 days)

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