*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY JUNE 7 2023 9:35 PM EDT...
Over the last several days... as typically seen during the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season... the tropical belt of the Atlantic basin has become filled with tropical waves of low pressure originating from Africa. The atmospheric conditions for the tropical waves are not currently hostile due to the presence of a lengthy low-latitude tropical upper ridge producing areas of low wind shear and enhanced upper outflow supporting thunderstorm activity. However none of the tropical waves are currently showing signs of development... and none of the global models forecast tropical development in the Atlantic basin over the next few days as the region of favorable upper winds in the tropical belt of the Atlantic will narrow down to only the central Atlantic (between 40W and 60W longitude) as follows:
(1) Upper troughing over eastern North America will continue to generate surface frontal systems in the western Atlantic... with warm southerly flow ahead of the frontal systems amplifying warm core upper ridging over the central Atlantic which will keep wind shear low between 40W and 60W longitude. However as noted above none of the models are forecasting tropical development here.
(2) To the east of 40W longitude... tropical activity in the Atlantic will be suppressed as the amplifying central Atlantic upper ridging will push the current northeastern Atlantic upper vorticity southward toward the tropics.
(3) To the west of 60W longitude... tropical activity in the Atlantic will be suppressed as upper vorticity over eastern North America will tend to dive southward toward the tropics due to the flow around relentless upper ridging ongoing over central Canada.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 7) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jun 7) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1800Z (Jun 7) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jun 7) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
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