*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...TUESDAY JUNE 6 2023 11:29 PM EDT...
The northeastern Atlantic surface frontal cyclone currently centered just southeast of the Azores has not acquired tropical characteristics but nonetheless is bringing impacts to the region... see area of interest #6 below for additional information. Elsewhere... an eastward-moving area of increased thunderstorm activity passed over the northwestern Caribbean Sea... Cayman Islands... and central Cuba... and as of this writing covers Jamaica... eastern Cuba... and the Bahamas. This activity is being supported by upper divergence out ahead of the sprawling upper trough that has been parked over eastern North America. However the south side of the upper trough is not forecast to amplify enough to bring down westerly wind shear levels and tropical development is not anticipated here.
As done on this site starting last year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development throughout the year... resetting back to #1 at the start of each year. This scheme is so that each area of interest retains a numeric identity from update to update... which reduces confusion when simultaneous areas of interest begin and end when tropical activity increases during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. The current area of interest is tagged #6 as the first five were assigned in earlier birdseye view posts on this site.
AREA OF INTEREST #6... The surface frontal cyclone currently parked just southeast of the Azores has become stacked below its parent cold core upper vortex... and as a result is at its peak strength and will begin its post-mature decay phase as there is a lack of divergence directly below the upper vortex core. Shower and thunderstorm activity has not persisted long enough near the core of the frontal cyclone for acquisition of tropical characteristics... as of late (in colorized infrared satellite pictures) there is only some broken scattered activity in the northern semicircle of the circulation. This is an indication that the combination of surface 20 deg C waters and cold upper air temps (200 mb heights of 1192 dekameters) is not quiet enough to produce instability... either warmer waters or cooler upper air temps (lower 200 mb heights) were needed.
For the next 24 hours... the models remain in agreement on the future evolution of this system... and the forecast track in my outlook below is a reflection of the model consensus and is also unchanged from my previous outlook given the persistence in the models and accuracy of the previous forecast track. Essentially the models show the eastern divergence zone of the upper vortex making yet another frontal cyclone to the east-northeast... with the south side of the new neighboring frontal cyclone pulling this area of interest (near the eastern Azores) eastward and absorbing it. The forecast absorption is why I drop odds of subtropical cyclone formation to 0% by 24 hours. This will also be my planned final update on this area of interest on this blog unless the National Hurricane Center continues to mention it in their tropical weather outlook by my next update. For the period beyond 24 hours... the upper trough fragment currently southeast of Greenland is expected to evolve into another cut-off upper vortex due to the ongoing amplification of the current north Atlantic upper ridge... with the absorbing frontal cyclone and upper vortex near the Azores lifting northward while orbiting around the second cut-off upper vortex southeast of Greenland. Because the absorbing frontal cyclone will be lifting northward into even cooler waters... and because it will broaden with multiple centers (instead of a single center customarily associated with tropical activity) due to the mutliplicity of upper divergence regions as the two upper vortices mingle and then merge... a second round of possible subtropical development is NOT expected for the absorbing frontal cyclone in the window beyond 24 hours.
The sprawling circulation of the current frontal cyclone just southeast of the Azores... and the adjacent frontal cyclone that will soon form to the east-northeast and absorb the one currently near the Azores... will continue to bring periods of heavy rainfall... coastal surf... and gusty winds to the Azores and Canary Islands through tomorrow. Coastal surf will also be reaching the western shores of Portugal and Spain.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jun 8)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northeastern Atlantic Ocean near 37.5N-17.5W)
******National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 PM EDT***************************
Formation chance through 48 hours...10%
Formation chance through 7 days (168 hours)...10%
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jun 6) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #6... surface frontal cyclone currently located just southeast of the Azores becomes absorbed by additional cyclone that forms to the east-northeast through 24 hours... through 84 hours the absorbing cyclone goes on to have multiple centers while drifting northward to 46N-20W
1200Z (Jun 6) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #6... surface frontal cyclone currently located just southeast of the Azores becomes absorbed by additional cyclone that forms to the east-northeast through 30 hours... through 78 hours the absorbing cyclone goes on to have multiple centers while drifting northward to 47.5N-20W
1800Z (Jun 6) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #6... surface frontal cyclone currently located just southeast of the Azores becomes absorbed by additional cyclone that forms to the east-northeast through 27 hours... through 72 hours the absorbing cyclone goes on to have multiple centers while drifting northward to 47.5N-19W
1800Z (Jun 6) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #6... surface frontal cyclone currently located just southeast of the Azores moves east-northeast toward 43N-16W through 48 hours while degenerating into a system with multiple centers... through 72 hours the frontal cyclone drifts northwestward toward 45N-20W