*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY MAY 29 2023 1:40 AM EDT...
Although the Atlantic Hurricane Season does not begin until June 1st... continuing daily birdseye view posts on the Atlantic tropics on this site as model signals are increasingly pointing to possible western Atlantic tropical development in the days ahead as discussed below.
For the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic waters offshore of the Bahamas and southeastern United States... upper vorticity is expected to increase in the region as current upper trough energy from the western US merges with what will remain of the current southeastern US upper vortex... with the merger shifting eastward with time. As of today models are in increasing agreement that by day 5 the upper vorticity will be amplified enough to produce a subtropical or tropical disturbance over Gulf of Mexico or western Atlantic waters (a higher amplitude upper-level feature on its east side produces lower shear and increased upper divergence needed for tropical activity). The disagreement in the models at this time pertains to where the disturbance will materialize... for example this past 1200Z CMC model run shows a disturbance further east midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda while this past 1200Z ECWMF model run shows a disturbance further west and near the southeastern United States coast. Should model runs later converge on a more consistent solution... will initiate an area of interest featuring a track forecast and probabilities of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (May 28) CMC Model Run...
**Surface low forms just west of Jamaica at 120 hours... surface low moves northeastward and crosses eastern Cuba through 132 hours and the central Bahamas through 144 hours... surface low strengthens into a possible tropical cyclone in western Atlantic near 26N-71.5W at 150 hours
1200Z (May 28) ECMWF Model Run...
**Broad surface low covering southern Florida and the east-central Gulf of Mexico forms at 114 hours... the lowest pressure of this system becomes established west-northwest of the Florida Keys by 144 hours... the lowest pressure area moves east-northeast across the southern Florida peninsula with potential subtropical cyclone formation on the southeast Florida coast by 168 hours
0000Z (May 29) GFS Model Run...
**Rather large surface low pressure area becomes established northeast of the Bahamas by 132 hours... possible subtropical cyclone formation in north side of the surface low pressure area and near 30.5N-76W by 144 hours
0600Z (May 28) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)