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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #117

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...TUESDAY NOVEMBER 7 2023 12:40 PM EDT...

Over the next six days the following upper air pattern may cause the development of a new tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean Sea as follows:

(1) Over the next three days the southern part of the current eastern North America upper trough is forecast to amplify southward into the Caribbean due to upstream warm core upper ridging that amplfies over the southeastern US and western Atlantic (the upstream upper ridging will be generated by warm air transport ahead of North American surface frontal lows induced by the upper trough that recently made landfall over western North America).

(2) From days 4 to 6 the upper vorticity over the Caribbean left behind by the aforementioned upper trough decays due to prolonged isolation from high-latitude cold air... with a southern Caribbean upper ridge cell expanding in its wake. The outflow of the expanding Caribbean upper ridge cell may drop surface pressures enough to generate a new tropical disturbance in the southern Caribbean during this timeframe.


Elsewhere... no other tropical areas of interest are expected to emerge in the Atlantic basin.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields(http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Nov 7) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


0000Z (Nov 7) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


0600Z (Nov 7) GFS Model Run...

**Broad tropical low develops east of Nicaragua near 14N-81.2W at 156 hours... broad tropical low drifts west toward the Nicaragua/Honduras border through 168 hours


0600Z (Nov 7) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)

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