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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #115

Updated: Nov 6, 2023

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...UPDATE...MONDAY NOVEMBER 6 2023 10:46 AM EDT...

The birdseye view chart below has been updated to include the surface and upper air analysis for 1800Z November 5 which were effective at the time the forecasts and discussions below were created.


...SUNDAY NOVEMBER 5 2023 6:23 PM EDT...

Note the usual surface and upper air analysis are not included in the above chart to ensure a more timely release of this update... those parts of the chart will be added within the next several hours.


Squalls of thunderstorms continue across the western Caribbean in association with the broad tropical low that recently made landfall in Central America. However there are no signs of tropical development in this activity. Elsewhere... no tropical area of interest is expected to emerge in the Atlantic basin over the next several days.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields(http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


1200Z (Nov 5) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Nov 5) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Nov 5) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Nov 5) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical development shown in the Atlantic basin through 168 hours (7 days)

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