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BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

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MY 2023 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #114

Updated: Nov 5, 2023

*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********


...UPDATE...SUNDAY NOVEMBER 5 2023 11:23 AM EDT...

The birdseye view chart below has been updated to include the surface and upper air analysis for 1800Z November 4 which were effective at the time the forecasts and discussions below were created.


...SATURDAY NOVEMBER 4 2023 11:50 AM EDT...

Note the usual surface and upper air analysis are not included in the above chart to ensure a more timely release of this update... those parts of the chart will be added within the next several hours.


The broad low pressure area in the central Caribbean is running out of time to develop as it makes landfall in Central America... see area of interest #51 section below for more information. Elsewhere... no other tropical area of interest is expected to emerge in the Atlantic basin.


AREA OF INTEREST #51... The broad surface low pressure system in the central Caribbean Sea that has been pushing into Central America consists of multiple centers of rotation. The National Hurricane Center continues to mention this system in their tropical weather outlook while monitoring a center of rotation currently offshore of southeastern Nicaragua. However this center will likely be making landfall soon and I assess a 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation going forward. The Caribbean upper ridge cell with its favorable low shear/upper outflow environment will be stacked over this system for some time... and it is conceivable in the long range this broad system tries to develop over western Caribbean or far eastern Pacific waters adjacent to Central America. Given the general central area of this broad system remains further south... I assess any long-term development potential lies toward the eastern Pacific. Thus I continue to have no long-term forecast points on this system as this site is focused on Atlantic basin tropical activity (Caribbean... Gulf of Mexico... North Atlantic). This will be my planned final statement on this area of interest unless it continues to be mentioned in the NHC outlook by the time of my next update.


Periods of heavy rainfall from this system are likely over the next few days across Central America (Belize... Guatemala... El Salvador... Honduras... Nicaragua... and Costa Rica) and parts of southeatern Mexico within the next few days.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 5)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (inland in vicnity of western Nicaragua/Honduras border near 13.5N-87W)

*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 AM EDT***************************

Formation chance through 48 hours... 20%

Formation chance through 7 days... 20%


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields(http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).


0000Z (Nov 4) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #51... no development shown


0000Z (Nov 4) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #51... no development shown


0600Z (Nov 4) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #51... no development shown


0600Z (Nov 4) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #51... no development shown

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