*******Note that forecast and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.*********
...FRIDAY NOVEMBER 3 2023 11:30 AM EDT...
The broad low pressure area in the central Caribbean has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours before it makes landfall in Central America... see area of interest #51 section below for more information. Elsewhere... no other tropical area of interest is expected to emerge in the Atlantic basin.
AREA OF INTEREST #51... The broad surface low pressure system in the central Caribbean Sea over the last several hours appears to have become better organized with a better-defined center of rotation near 14N-81W as of 1200Z today. This center of rotation is on track to move into Central America via Nicaragua over the next 24 hours while pushed west-southwest by the deep-layer east-northeasterly flow on the south side of the current eastern US/western Atlantic surface ridge and current Caribbean upper ridge cell. Because this system has developed a better-defined center I have pulled odds of tropical cyclone formation back up above 0%... assigning a special 12-hour outlook point just offshore of northeastern Nicaragua where I think there is a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation just prior to landfall (normally I assign odds of development over 24-hour increments instead of 12-hour increments). After landfall the Caribbean upper ridge cell with its favorable low shear/upper outflow environment is forecast to shift southward over this system due to the push of a series of upper troughs to pass over North America... and it is conceivable in the long range this broad system tries to develop over adjacent western Caribbean or far eastern Pacific waters. Given the current forecast track... I assess that the center of rotation will likely be too far away from the Caribbean and hence assume any long-term development potential lies toward the eastern Pacific. Thus I continue to have no long-term forecast points on this system as this site is focused on Atlantic basin tropical activity (Caribbean... Gulf of Mexico... North Atlantic).
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... periods of heavy rainfall are likely to increase across Central America (Belize... Guatemala... El Salvador... Honduras... Nicaragua... Costa Rica... and Panama) within the next few days.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 12 Hr Outlook (0000Z Nov 3)... 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (vicinity of northeastern Nicaragua coast near 13.8N-82.8W)
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Nov 4)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northeastern Nicaragua near 13.5N-85W)
*****National Hurricane Center (hurricanes.gov) official outlook as of 8 AM EDT***************************
Formation chance through 48 hours... 10%
Formation chance through 7 days... 10%
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields(http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/).
0000Z (Nov 3) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #51... no development shown
0000Z (Nov 3) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #51... no development shown
0600Z (Nov 3) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #51... no development shown
0600Z (Nov 3) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #51... no development shown