BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #82

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...UPDATE...TUESDAY AUGUST 23 2022 8:05 AM EDT...

Area of interest #20 has been added to the 5-day National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook as of 8 AM EDT.


...TUESDAY AUGUST 23 2022 8:04 AM EDT...

As the tropical Atlantic continues its generally calm pace... keeping an eye on a pair of tropical waves of low pressure currently present in the eastern Atlantic/western Africa region:

(1) See area of interest #20 section below for an update on the tropical wave currently nearing the west coast of Africa

(2) See area of interest #21 section below for an update on the tropical low pressure continuing to advance westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic


New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #20 and #21 as I designated the other nineteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.


AREA OF INTEREST #20...The tropical wave of low pressure that continues to make its way westward across western Africa is regaining some definition as it reaches the west coast of Africa by firing some pockets of thunderstorm activity. Favoring this tropical wave in the days ahead is the widespread tropical upper ridge with favorable low wind shear and upper outflow that has been dominating the region... which is expected to persist. Going against this tropical wave is the ongoing dominance of dry Saharan air in the eastern tropical Atlantic...which has suppressed tropical activity in the region over the last several days despite the otherwise favorable upper ridge. Therefore I maintain low 10% odds of tropical cyclone formation. The updated forecast track below is adjusted based on the current position of the tropical wave and also shows a slower westward speed. Ongoing model solutions have been showing a slower westward motion than my previous forecasts. Looking at satellite imagery over the last several hours... it is appears the slower westward motion is expected as another adjacent tropical wave to the east which features a well-organized area of rotating thunderstorms is quickly nearing. This indicates potential for this area of interest to become entangled with the additional wave to the east... resulting in a net slower westward motion as the two waves potentially merge into a singular broad tropical low pressure area.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 24)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-18.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 25)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 12.5N-23W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 26)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-27W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 27)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 13N-31W)

IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 28)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 13N-35W)


AREA OF INTEREST #21...The tropical low pressure area that was west of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands is continuing westward across the open eastern tropical Atlantic. As it does so... its thunderstorm activity has essentially evaporated over the last 24 hours while it ingests dry Saharan air. Therefore in this update I have not raised odds of tropical cyclone formation above 5%. If these trends continue... I will drop odds of tropical cyclone formation to 0% in my next update. Also going against this tropical low is lukewarm 26 deg C water temperatures which are marginally conducive for tropical development. Although this system will reach warmer waters in 3+ days... changes in the upper atmosphere are expected to make conditions more hostile for development by that time. Specifically warm air advection (northward warm air transport) ahead of the current northeastern US frontal and low and on the west side of the Atlantic surface ridge will amplify the current northwest Atlantic upper ridge... with the upper ridge pushing a chunk of the upper vorticity tied to the current northeast Atlantic upper trough southward toward the central tropical Atlantic. The expected surge in central tropical Atlantic upper vorticity will increase westerly wind shear and also suppress upper outflow needed for thunderstorm activity... therefore in my updated outlook below odds of tropical cyclone formation fall to 0% by 96 hours.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 24)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 16N-37.5W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 25)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 16N-42.5W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 26)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 16N-47.5W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 27)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 17N-52W)


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Aug 22) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #20...tropical wave departs western Africa within next 36 hours... through 90 hours organizes into a broad tropical low centered just south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands... tropical low reaches 14.5N-36.5W at 168 hours

**For area of interest #21...no development shown


1200Z (Aug 22) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #20...tropical wave departs western Africa within next 48 hours... through 96 hours the wave consolidates into a tropical low passing through the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands... broad tropical low reaches 14.5N-34.5W at 168 hours.

**For area of interest #21...no development shown


1800Z (Aug 22) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #20...tropical wave departs western Africa within next 36 hours... for short period of time the wave organizes into a tropical low centered near 14N-32.5W at 99 hours after which time the low pressure opens back to a wave with no further development.

**For area of interest #21...no development shown

**Vigorous tropical wave featuring well-defined low pressure center emerges from the west coast of Africa at 168 hours


1800Z (Aug 22) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #20...tropical wave departs western Africa within next 24 hours...briefly organizes into a broad tropical low just south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 72 hours after which time the low pressure opens back to a wave with no further development.

**For area of interest #21...at 108 hours the tropical low pressure stalls in the central tropical Atlantic in the vicinity of 40W longitude while tugged by the large circulation of area of interest #20 to the east... stationary tropical low develops further at 168 hours in vicinity of 11.5N-39.5W

**Vigorous tropical wave featuring broad low pressure spin emerges from the west coast of Africa at 168 hours

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