*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY AUGUST 21 2022 3:59 AM EDT...
The tropical disturbance in the western Gulf of Mexico fails to break the July-August drought of Atlantic tropical cyclones seen this year as it makes landfall in northeastern Mexico while rapidly weakening... see area of interest #19 section below for more details.
Elsewhere... keeping an eye on a pair of tropical waves of low pressure currently present in the eastern Atlantic/western Africa region:
(1) See area of interest #20 section below for an update on the large tropical wave currently over interior western Africa.
(2) See area of interest #21 section below for an update on the tropical low pressure now located over the southeastern Republic of Cabo Verde Islands... which has spent the last 24 hours merging with a tropical wave that just departed from the west coast of Africa.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #19 to #21 as I designated the other eighteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #19 (POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR)...Satellite image of the western Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance... tagged as potential tropical cyclone four by the National Hurricane Center... making landfall on the coast of Tamaulipas in northeastern Mexico at 2311Z on Saturday. The yellow arrow points to a compact and organized area of thunderstorms and mid-level rotation observed during the landfall:
As expected... the western Gulf of Mexico tropical low pressure disturbance has advanced north-northwestward into the northeastern Mexican province of Tamaulipas. On its way to the coast... the disturbance maintained a compact area of organizing thunderstorms and mid-level rotation. However the NHC had multiple tools at its disposal that showed no closed circulation at the surface needed to officially declare a tropical cyclone (another aircraft reconnaissance mission on Saturday... surface observations... and ASCAT satellite passes of surface winds). The surface fixes of lowest surface pressure were also a tad north of the organized mid-level rotation. It is also worth noting the disturbance underperformed in terms of maximum sustained surface winds... never climbing above 35 mph. Following the landfall... the mid-level rotation and small area of thunderstorms has quickly collapsed. Tropical cyclone formation is no longer expected from the landfall... this is my final statement on this area of interest on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 22)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southern Texas near 27.5N-98.5W)
AREA OF INTEREST #20...The large tropical wave of low pressure that continues to make its way westward across interior western Africa has become less organized. Specifically the thunderstorm activity has substantially reduced... leaving behind a broad area of rotating low-level cloudiness. What remains of the thunderstorm activity is off to the west... becoming increasingly detached from the wave as it already is nearing the west coast of Africa. Despite these developments... their remains long range computer models support showing this wave developing once it later moves into and across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Also potentially favoring this tropical wave is the widespread tropical upper ridge with favorable low wind shear and upper outflow that has been dominating the region... which is expected to persist. Also noting that the additional disturbance to the west... tagged as area of interest #21 on this blog... is making some effort at moistening out the dry saharan air in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Despite these positive observations and ongoing computer model support... I have not raised odds of tropical cyclone formation for this tropical wave above 10% due to the recent disorganization of the tropical wave. There is also no guarantee that this wave will escape ingesting dry saharan air... this has been a recurring theme in this region of the Atlantic basin this season that has been contributing to the ongoing drought of Atlantic tropical cyclones. On a final note... should this wave redevelop widespread thunderstorm squalls it could bring gusty winds and heavy rainfall to the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands late Tuesday through early Wednesday.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 22)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Africa near 12N-12W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 23)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just offshore of the west coast of Africa near 12N-17W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 24)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (south-southeast of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 12.5N-22W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 25)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.8N-27W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 26)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 13.1N-32W)
AREA OF INTEREST #21...The tropical low pressure area that has been in the vicinity of the southeastern Republic of Cabo Verde Islands has merged with a tropical wave to the east that has recently ejected from the west coast of Africa. Although the tropical low has continued to maintain a healthy area of rotating clouds... the thunderstorm activity has markedly reduced while this system ingests dry saharan air lurking just to the north.
The additional tropical wave that was just west of this disturbance has pulled westward and away while arriving to 41W longitude. As a result its steering influence on this disturbance has reduced and the steering influence of the Atlantic surface ridge to the north will increase... resulting in a more westward and less northward angle in the disturbance's track going forward. Due to the already-observed negative effects of the dry saharan air... I have lowered odds of tropical cyclone formation to 5% (note this is below the NHC tropical weather outlook's 20% as of this writing). The thermodynamic picture for this disturbance also does not look healthy as the forecast track keeps it near the dry saharan air layer and over lukewarm 26 deg C waters for the next 4 days which is only just enough for tropical cyclone formation. Although the disturbance will begin to reach warmer water by 5+ days... it will still be potentially located near dry saharan air.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 22)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just west of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 16.2N-26W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 23)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 17.2N-30.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 24)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 17.5N-35.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 25)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 17.5N-40.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 26)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 17.5N-45.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Aug 20) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown
**For area of interest #20...large tropical wave currently over western Africa emerges into the eastern tropical Atlantic at 72 hours... begins organizing into an elongated tropical low just southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 144 hours... elongated tropical low located in vicinity of 12.5N-34W at 168 hours
**For area of interest #21...initialized as a southwest-northeast elongated circulation which consolidates into a tropical low over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands over the next 24 hours... tropical low proceeds west-northwest and dissipates near 18.8N-29W just after 54 hours.
**Currently calm broad tropical wave currently moving into the central Caribbean Sea evolves into a tropical low in the Bay of Campeche at 168 hours.
1200Z (Aug 20) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown
**For area of interest #20...large tropical wave currently over western Africa emerges into the eastern tropical Atlantic at 72 hours... tropical wave organizes into a large broad tropical low centered just southeast of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 96 hours... by 168 hours strengthens into a large tropical storm centered at 14.5N-38.8W
**For area of interest #21...no development shown
1800Z (Aug 20) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown
**For area of interest #20...large tropical wave currently over western Africa emerges into the eastern tropical Atlantic at 93 hours... organizes into a tropical low near 11.5N-22.5W at 117 hours... tropical low gradually evolves into a tropical cyclone which reaches 17.5N-36.5W at 168 hours.
**For area of interest #21...tropical low becomes better defined over the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands at 21 hours...becomes a tropical cyclone near 17.5N-34W at 84 hours... tropical cyclone located at 17.5N-42W at 120 hours.
1800Z (Aug 20) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown
**For area of interest #20...no development shown
**For area of interest #21...no development shown
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