*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY AUGUST 18 2022 3:45 PM EDT...
The following is a special update on the tropical disturbance whose center of rotation is now crossing the Mexican province of Campeche... heading northwest toward the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico waters... tagged as area of interest #19 in full update #77 early this morning. See full update #77 on the home page for more information on the rest of the Atlantic tropics.
AREA OF INTEREST #19...Satellite image of tropical disturbance moving across southeastern Mexico and toward the Bay of Campeche... taken at 1901Z:
The tropical disturbance whose center of rotation moved into Belize early this morning is now continuing west-northwest across the Mexican province of Campeche. The disturbance continues to consist of a surface tropical wave of low pressure and overhead upper anticyclonic ridge providing low shear and upper outflow... and a rotating mass of thunderstorms. The rotating mass of thunderstorms appears to have become slightly larger and better organized over the last several hours... and this special update is for me to raise odds of tropical cyclone formation in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf of Mexico to 60% for the next 48 hour period. This is higher than the NHC tropical weather outlook current 30% as of this writing. I assess higher odds are warranted due to the consolidated and organized structure of the thunderstorm mass which will make it easier for it establish a well-defined center of surface spin... as opposed to a larger broad system which typically requires more time to establish a defined center of surface spin. Rather warm sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf of Mexico and the expected maintenance of the overhead upper anticyclonic ridge are also factors favoring this system. I have not gone with higher than 60% odds at this time as the National Hurricane Center TAFB surface analysis does not yet show a surface low pressure center... instead showing the nearby tropical wave axis being just to the south and east. In addition the CIMSS 850 mb vorticity product shows mid-level rotation to the south of the thunderstorm cluster instead of underneath it (http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor&zoom=&time=)
Regarding the track forecast...no changes since this morning's full update #77. The disturbance's current west-northwest track is expected to bend increasingly north while the disturbance rounds the south and west sides of the Gulf of Mexico surface ridge... eventually heading toward a surface ridge weakness to be induced by a frontal system that settles into the central US by the end of the 3-day forecast period.
Regarding impacts to land areas...
(1) Additional heavy rainfall possible across the Mexican province of Campeche through tonight. Due to the recent growth in the central thunderstorm mass and development of northern outer bands of activity... heavy rains are also possible across Quintana Roo and Yucatan provinces. Isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out.
(2) Interests in Tamaulipas and southern Texas to the south of Matagorda Bay should monitor the progress of this system. Preparations for possible tropical storm conditions (heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential on both inland and coastal areas... with gusty winds and ocean swells along the coast) may be needed as soon as tomorrow night should tropical cyclone formation occur within the next 24 hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible later this weekend.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 19)...60% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Bay of Campeche near 20.5N-94.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 20)...60% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Just offshore of Tamaulipas near 23.8N-97.5W
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 21)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Inland over the Texas/Mexico border near 26.1N-98W)
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