*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY AUGUST 18 2022 12:53 AM EDT...
The western Caribbean tropical disturbance as expected is making landfall in Belize tonight. The disturbance is expected to cross northern Guatemala... the Mexican province of Campeche... and then the Bay of Campeche in the next 48 hours. Tropical cyclone formation from this disturbance is possible in the Bay of Campeche or western Gulf of Mexico... see area of interest #19 section below for more information.
Elsewhere... a tropical wave of low pressure that has recently emerged from western Africa is displaying a well-defined swirl south-southeast of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands. Pockets of showers and thunderstorms have developed near to and to the south of the swirl center. If this organized tropical wave shows signs of warding off dry saharan air in the region by developing more thunderstorm activity... it could be added as an area of interest for further development within the next 24 hours.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #19 as I designated the other eighteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #19...Cold core upper vorticity that previously suppressed tropical activity in the Caribbean has continued to weaken while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air. What remains of the upper vorticity has drifted westward and away into the Bay of Campeche under the influence of warm upper ridging that has been persisting over the US Gulf coast region and central US. The upper vorticity is expected to continue to fade while heading westward... which has allowed and will continue to allow for tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow to expand in the wake of the retreating and waning upper vorticity. A surface tropical wave of low pressure now traversing the western Caribbean Sea continues to take advantage of the improving upper air pattern while maintaining an ongoing core of rotating showers and thunderstorms. The core is currently making landfall on the east coast of Belize. Also note northern outer bands of thunderstorm activity were present around the core for much of Wednesday afternoon... however those bands have waned in recent hours.
Regarding the track forecast... any low pressure spin spawned by this tropical wave is expected to increasingly bend north in track while rounding the south and west sides of the Gulf of Mexico surface ridge... eventually heading toward a surface ridge weakness to be induced by a frontal system that settles into the central US by the end of the 5-day forecast period. Because the current position of the rotating core of thunderstorms is a little east of my previous forecast track... my updated one is nudged east. The logic behind this is the disturbance will be a little further east by the time the central US surface ridge weakness develops... providing an opportunity for the disturbance to bend north toward the weakenss at a slightly further east location. The forecast track takes this disturbance across Belize... northern Guatemala... the Mexican province of Campeche... the Bay of Campeche and western edge of the Gulf of Mexico... and then finally into northeastern Mexico. Going against this system is periods of land interaction along the forecast track... the potential for some wind shear if the waning upper vorticity mentioned in the prior paragraph is too slow to weaken... and the lack of computer model support explicitly showing tropical cyclone formation. However going for this disturbance is the organized thunderstorm core that this disturbance has exhibited over the last 24 hours... and so I do agree with peak odds of tropical cyclone formation above 10%. Therefore I continue to set peak odds of tropical cyclone formation at 20%. This is not as high as the NHC's 30% as of this writing as I am weighing the above-mentioned negative factors... and prefer to see how this disturbance evolves once it reaches the Bay of Campeche/western Gulf of Mexico before raising development odds further. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... this disturbance has potential to produce heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding potential across Belize... northern Guatemala... and Campeche over the next 24 hours... potentially spreading into Tamaulipas and southern Texas by Friday evening and the weekend.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 19)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Inland over Mexican province of Campeche near 18.5N-90.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 20)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Bay of Campeche near 20.5N-94.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 21)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Just offshore of Tamaulipas near 23.8N-97.5W
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 22)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Inland over the Texas/Mexico border near 26.1N-98W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Aug 17) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...small tropical low becomes established in the western Gulf of Mexico just offshore of east-central Mexico at 72 hours... makes landfall on northeast coast of Mexico at 78 hours after which time it quickly dissipates.
1200Z (Aug 17) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown
1800Z (Aug 17) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown
1800Z (Aug 17) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown