*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...TUESDAY AUGUST 16 2022 8:53 PM EDT...
As anticipated over the previous few days... a tropical disturbance has developed in the vicinity of the western Caribbean and Central America and is heading toward the general direction of Belize and the Bay of Campeche. See area of interest #19 section below for more details.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #19 as I designated the other eighteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #19...Cold core upper vorticity that has been suppressing tropical activity in the Caribbean over the last several days has continued to weaken while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air. What remains of the upper vorticity has drifted westward and away into the northwest edge of the Caribbean and Bay of Campeche under the influence of warm upper ridging that has been persisting over the US Gulf coast region and central US. The upper vorticity is expected to continue to fade while heading westward... which has allowed and will continue to allow for tropical upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow to expand in the wake of the retreating and waning upper vorticity. It was previously thought the tropical wave formerly designated Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center (formerly designated area of interest #14 on this blog) would take advantage of the expanding tropical upper ridging. Instead the central Caribbean wave just to its west has taken advantage of the improving upper air pattern by first producing rotating thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean since yesterday. As of this past afternoon and tonight... the north side of this central Caribbean wave is producing a concentrated mass of rotating thunderstorms over eastern Honduras...far northeastern Nicaragua... and adjacent western Caribbean waters. This tropical wave has also been introduced into the National Hurricane Center tropical weather outlook within the last 24 hours... and on this blog the wave is designated as area of interest #19 as it is seperate from the adjacent wave to the east formerly tagged as area of interest #14.
Regarding the track forecast... any low pressure spin spawned by this tropical wave is expected to increasingly bend north in track while rounding the south and west sides of the Gulf of Mexico surface ridge... eventually heading toward a surface ridge weakness to be induced by a frontal system that settles into the central US by the end of the 5-day forecast period. This will take this disturbance on a track that arcs across the western Caribbean... Belize... northern Guatemala... the Mexican province of Campeche... and then eventually the Bay of Campeche waters. Going against this system is periods of land interaction along the forecast track... the potential for some wind shear if the waning upper vorticity mentioned in the prior paragraph is too slow to weaken... and the lack of computer model support explicitly showing tropical cyclone formation. However going for this disturbance is the organized thunderstorm pattern that has been exhibited over the last several hours... and so I do agree with peak odds of tropical cyclone formation above 10% and therefore am in agreement with the NHC's 20% peak as of this writing. Odds below 20% during specific timeframes in the outlook below are a reflection of land interaction. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not... this disturbance has potential to produce heavy rainfall with isolated flash flooding potential across Belize... northern Guatemala... and Campeche over the next day or so... potentially spreading into northern Veracruz and Tamaulipas by Friday evening and the weekend.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 17)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east coast of Belize near 17.5N-88.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 18)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Bay of Campeche coast of Mexico near 18.8N-91W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 19)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Bay of Campeche near 20N-95.2W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 20)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Coast of Mexico in vicinity of Veracruz/Tamaulipas border... near 22.6N-97.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (1800Z Aug 21)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Inland over northeastern Mexico in vicinity of Tamaulipas/Nuevo Leon border... near 24.5N-99W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Aug 16) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown
1200Z (Aug 16) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...briefly develops into a tropical low in the western Gulf of Mexico... just offshore of east-central Mexico... at 96 hours
1200Z (Aug 16) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown
**Current tropical wave over western Africa enters the eastern tropical Atlantic at 36 hours...develops into a tropical low just southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands by 120 hours... tropical low becomes possible tropical depression near 17.8N-32.5W at 168 hours
**Tail end of cold front attached to current northwest Atlantic frontal low evolves into a small surface low east of Virginia and south of Cape Cod Massachusetts near 37.5N-71W at 102 hours... while the small surface low continues east tropical cyclone formation suggested near 37.5N-70W at 108 hours... tropical cyclone located near 37.8N-67W at 120 hours
1200Z (Aug 16) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #19...no development shown