*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY AUGUST 15 2022 4:49 PM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics quickly turn quiet with all current tropical areas of interest collapsing and not developing. See area interest #16 through #18 sections below for more details.
Elsewhere...cold core upper vorticity that has been suppressing tropical activity in the Caribbean over the last several days has finally begun to weaken while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air. This is is allowing for the expansion of tropical upper ridging with lower shear and increased upper outflow which is already resulting in an increase in showers and thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean Sea. The large tropical wave of low pressure formerly designated as area of interest #14 on this blog (and formerly designated Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center) has entered the eastern Caribbean Sea from the central tropical Atlantic. While working with the more favorable expanding upper outflow pattern... the large tropical wave may act to expand the current area of disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean northwestward across Central America... the Yucatan Peninsula...western Caribbean and Bay of Campeche in the days ahead. This region may require monitoring for tropical development in approximately four to five days from today.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #16 through #18 as I designated the other fifteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #16...The surface frontal low offshore of the southeastern United States has not seen an increase in thunderstorms near its center as wind shear induced by its supporting upper vorticity remains too elevated for tropical development. Wind shear is not expected to relax as the upper trough currently over northeastern Canada is entering the region. This is my final statement on this area of interest on this blog as tropical development is not expected here.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Aug 16)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 34.2N-68.5W)
AREA OF INTEREST #17...The low pressure area in the open northwestern Atlantic...located well south-southeast of Newfoundland... has become less organized and more elongated north-south while disrupted by upper vorticity intruding from the southeast. The GFS model which yesterday forecasted this area to develop in a tropical manner no longer shows this... and this is my planned final statement on this area of interest on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (1200Z Aug 16)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northwestern Atlantic near 37N-52.5W)
AREA OF INTEREST #18...Satellite image taken around 0000Z late last evening... when the surface trough of low pressure currently passing just north of the northeastern Caribbean islands had more abundant and organized thunderstorm activity:
The large tropical wave of low pressure that was previously in the open central Atlantic... formerly designated Invest 97-L by the National Hurricane Center and area of interest #14 on this blog... has made its way into the eastern Caribbean Sea over the last 24 hours. Through yesterday afternoon and evening... the northern apex of this wave proceeded to evolve into a surface trough of low pressure enhanced by an area of upper divergence between the south side of the string of upper vorticity to the north and tropical upper ridging to the south. The enhanced surface trough... located north of the northeastern Caribbean islands... also proceeded to fire organized thunderstorm activity over and east of its axis... while activity to the west of the trough axis was limited by westerly wind shear. The National Hurricane Center however added the surface trough to their tropical weather outlook for a short time starting 8 PM EDT last evening... and ending at 2 PM EDT today once the thunderstorm activity collapsed in the face of increasing shear. The shear was initially relaxed enough at around 8 PM EDT last evening as the string of upper vorticity was in the process of weakening while remaining cut-off from high latitude cold air. However the westward moving surface trough has done poorly this afternoon while moving back into a higher shear environment while nearing a remaining northwestern Caribbean portion of the upper vorticity... as well as upper vorticity near the southeast United States coast... which are producing stronger upper westerly winds. Therefore tropical cyclone formation is not anticipated... and this will be my first and last statement on this area of interest on this blog since it is already cancelled in the NHC tropical weather outlook. This also negates the need for me to put in a probability outlook with a track forecast as I normally do with an area of interest.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Aug 15) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #16...no tropical development shown before surface low transitiosn into a large northwestern Atlantic non-tropical frontal low within the next couple of days.
**For area of interest #17...no development shown
**For area of interest #18...no development shown
0000Z (Aug 15) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #16...no tropical development shown before surface low transitiosn into a large northwestern Atlantic non-tropical frontal low within the next couple of days.
**For area of interest #17...no development shown
**For area of interest #18...no development shown
0600Z (Aug 15) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #16...no tropical development shown before surface low transitiosn into a large northwestern Atlantic non-tropical frontal low within the next couple of days.
**For area of interest #17...no development shown
**For area of interest #18...no development shown
0600Z (Aug 15) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #16...no tropical development shown before surface low transitiosn into a large northwestern Atlantic non-tropical frontal low within the next couple of days.
**For area of interest #17...no development shown
**For area of interest #18...no development shown