*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY AUGUST 14 2022 9:44 AM EDT...
While the eastern and central tropical Atlantic remain calm due to an outbreak of dry Saharan air... attention turns to the western part of the Atlantic basin for potential tropical activity as follows:
(1) A tropical low pressure area in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is now making landfall in southern Texas... see area of interest #15 section below for more information.
(2) A surface low pressure has become established offshore of the southeastern United States while supported by upper vorticity deposited by an upper trough that has recently entered the western Atlantic from eastern North America... see area of interest #16 section below for more information.
(3) Another surface low pressure has become established in the open northwestern Atlantic... supported by split flow upper divergence between the north side of a string of upper vorticity and south side of a north Atlantic upper ridge cell... see area of interest #17 section below for more information.
(4) Cold core upper vorticity that has been suppressing tropical activity in the Caribbean over the last several days is expected to finally weaken over the next few days while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air. This is expected to allow for the expansion of tropical upper ridging with lower shear and increased upper outflow. This more favorable upper air pattern may allow the large central Atlantic tropical wave...formerly designated area of interest #14 on this blog... to be re-invigorated as the wave eventually moves into the western Caribbean...Yucatan peninsula... and Bay of Campeche. This region may require monitoring for tropical development in approximately six days from today.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post are designated #15 through #17 as I designated the other fourteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #15...The once sprawling tropical low pressure area in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become consolidated while moving westward into southern Texas. The now-consolidated circulation is sporting a small but organized area of rotating thunderstorms. However tropical cyclone formation is no longer possible as this system is making lanfall. In the next 24 hours... a surface ridge is expected to expand along the United States Gulf coast to be supported by the western convergence zone of a chunk of upper vorticity to dive south from the current central/northeastern Canada upper trough and also the upper vorticity diving south from Arkansas. This expanding surface ridge is expected to push the tropical low further inland across southern Texas. The primary impact from this system will be a small area of heavy rainfall and possible isolated flash flooding in far southern Texas for the rest of today. With tropical cyclone formation no longer possible... this is my planned final statement on this area of interest on this blog.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 15)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Texas/Mexico border near 27N-99.5W)
AREA OF INTEREST #16...A large upper trough and surface frontal system has recently entered the western Atlantic from eastern North America. The sprawling upper ridge currently over the central US has pinched off a portion of the upper trough into an area of upper vorticity located near the southeastern United States coast. The eastern divergence zone of the upper vorticity has induced a surface low pressure spin offshore of the southeastern United States. Currently westerly wind shear levels are too high for the surface low to evolve into a tropical cyclone as the shower and thunderstorm activity is pushed east of its center. However should the intensity of the thunderstorm activity increase... the associated latent heat release could amplify the signature of the cool core upper vorticity enough to relax the wind shear. However I have assigned low 10% odds of tropical cyclone formation due to the current presence of the shear.
The surface low pressure associated with this area of interest is expected to move northeast in the flow ahead of the current northwest Atlantic frontal low... followed by the flow ahead of the frontal low currently approaching from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. By 48+ hours... the surface low will either itself transition into a large non-tropical frontal low in the northwest Atlantic supported by the approaching central/northeastern Canada upper trough... or become absorbed by a seperate northwestern Atlantic non-tropical frontal low to be induced by this upper trough. This will bring an end to potential tropical development of this surface low.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 15)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (offshore of the southeastern United States near 32.5N-74W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 16)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (western Atlantic near 34N-69W)
AREA OF INTEREST #17...As of Saturday and through this morning... showers and thunderstorms have increased in the open northwest Atlantic well to the south-southeast of Newfoundland due to an area of split flow upper divergence between the north side of a string of upper vorticity that has been straddling the open central Atlantic and southwest side of a north Atlantic upper ridge cell. A surface low pressure rotation is also forming in this activity... with the 0600Z GFS model run now picking up on this feature and forecasting possible tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Conditions for this feature to develop further in a tropical manner could remain favorable as warm upper ridging with low shear and upper outflow will remain in the region while supported by warm southerly flow ahead of the current northwest Atlantic frontal low... as long as the upper vorticity to the southeast does not become too intrusive which would otherwise disrupt the upper outflow pattern. Therefore I have initiated this surface low pressure as an area of interest for tropical development... marking the seventeenth one I have tracked for the Atlantic basin this year.
I have initiated this area of interest with odds already above 10% (at 20%) due to the potentially favorable upper-level wind outlook mentioned above and somewhat organized cloud and thunderstorm activity associated with this feature. The surface low is likely to remain stationary for the next 48 hours while caught in weak and conflicting steering between the Atlantic surface ridge and approaching northeastern United States surface ridge. After that time the surface low is expected to drift north into cooler waters in the steering flow out ahead of a new northwestern Atlantic frontal low to be birthed by the upper trough currently approaching from northeastern Canada... with the cooler waters bringing an end to potential tropical development after 72 hours. My track forecast below is positioned a little west of the 0600Z GFS as the potential for the upper vorticity to the southeast to intrude will make conditions toward the east a little less friendly for tropical development.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 15)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northwestern Atlantic near 36.5N-53.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 16)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northwestern Atlantic near 36.5N-53.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 17)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northwestern Atlantic near 38N-53.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 18)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (northwestern Atlantic near 42N-53.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Aug 14) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #15...no development shown
**For area of interest #16...surface low transitions into a large non-tropical frontal low accelerating northeastward midway between Bermuda and the United States east coast at 42 hours.
**For area of interest #17...no development shown
0000Z (Aug 14) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #15...no development shown
**For area of interest #16...surface low remains stationary offshore of Georgia and South Carolina near 30.5N-77W over the next 24 hours... between 48 and 72 hours moves northeast into the waters between Bermuda and the United States east coast where it loses definition while a new northwestern Atlantic non-tropical frontal low dominates the region.
**For area of interest #17...no development shown
0600Z (Aug 14) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #15...no development shown
**For area of interest #16...surface low loses defintion near 31N-76W at 36 hours
**For area of interest #17...current area of showers and thunderstorms near 36.5N-52.5W (supported by split flow upper divergence between the north side of upper vorticity to the south and southwest side of north Atlantic upper ridge) becomes a tropical cyclone at 30 hours... remains stationary through 54 hours until new northwestern Atlantic non-tropical frontal low to the west pulls the tropical cyclone northward... tropical cyclone weakens to a remnant low at 75 hours while reaching cooler waters near 37.5N-52.5W... remnant low passes just offshore of the southeast corner of Newfoundland at 120 hours.
0000Z (Aug 14) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #15...surface low moves into southern Texas where it dissipates just after 18 hours
**For area of interest #16...surface low loses defintion near 32.5N-70W while a new northwestern Atlantic non-tropical frontal low dominates the region.
**For area of interest #17...surface low develops near 39N-53W at 18 hours... dissipates soon after at 30 hours.