*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...THURSDAY AUGUST 11 2022 6:30 AM EDT...
See area of interest #14 section below for an update on the large tropical wave of low pressure currently heading into the central tropical Atlantic from the eastern tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere... the current surface frontal system and its associated upper trough moving across eastern Canada is expected to emerge into the western Atlantic within the next few days. Per the latest GFS model run... a fragment of this upper trough is forecast to be left behind offshore of the southeastern United States as amplified upper vorticity in about 4 days (96 hours). The eastern divergence zone of the upper vorticity...combined with the low shear due to the amplified nature of the upper vorticity... may allow for a subtropical or tropical disturbance between the United States east coast and Bermuda. However the opportunity for subtropical or tropical development will be short lived as already by day 5 (120 hours) the next upper trough to emerge from North America is currenlty expected to absorb the upper vorticity and potentially increase the wind shear in the region. Also the latest model runs do not show the formation of a subtropical/tropical disturbance in the day 4 timeframe.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #14 as I designated the other thirteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #14...Over the last 24 hours... the tropical wave of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic has advanced from 30W to 36W longitude. The broad low pressure spin of the wave which has been tracking along 12.5N latitude has continued to ingest dry saharan air to the north... and what remains of the shower and thunderstorm activity on the south side of the wave has continued to become weaker... more scattered... and less organized. Odds of tropical cyclone formation in the NHC tropical weather outlook product have been dropped to 10%. In this update I am electing to drop odds of development to 0%... especially with all recent model runs dropping the development of this wave while perhaps recognizing the recent ingestion of the dry saharan air. As such... this is my planned final statement on this area of interest on this blog unless it continues to be mentioned in the NHC tropical weather outlook by my next update... or alternatively if the more moist southern side of the tropical wave makes a comeback beneath the low shear/upper outflow of the sprawling tropical upper ridge in the region.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 12)...0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-42.5W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Aug 11) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown
0000Z (Aug 11) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown
0000Z (Aug 11) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown
0000Z (Aug 11) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown