*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY AUGUST 10 2022 1:50 AM EDT...
See area of interest #14 section below for more information on the tropical wave of low pressure currently in the eastern tropical Atlantic... which continues to be monitored for signs of tropical development. Elsewhere... the current surface frontal system and its associated upper trough moving across central Canada is expected to emerge into the western Atlantic from the United States east coast in 3 to 5 days. The upper trough may be amplified enough to produce upper divergence and low shear on its east side... potentially allowing what will be a decaying frontal system to evolve into a tropical or subtropical disturbance in the waters between the United States east coast and Bermuda. Will declare an area of interest for this situation in future updates if needed.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #14 as I designated the other thirteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #14...Over the last 24 hours... the tropical wave of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic has advanced from 25W to 30W longitude. The associated rotating shower and thunderstorm activity has become limited to the southwest side of the tropical wave's low pressure spin which was located near 12.5N-30W. Moreover this activity has become weaker and more scattered in nature. These are signs that the tropical wave has ingested some of the dry saharan air lurking to the north. Therefore despite the tropical wave being in an otherwise favorable environment of low shear and upper outflow beneath a tropical upper ridge and over warm waters... odds of tropical cyclone formation appears to have lowered. As such in the updated outlook below... I agree with the NHC (National Hurricane Center) lowering peak 5-day odds of tropical cyclone formation to 30%. Regarding the updated track forecast below... the tropical wave is expected to continue west while steered by the vast Atlantic surface ridge. The current central Canada frontal system will move into the western Atlantic and weaken the west side of the surface ridge within the next few days... and a northward bend in the forecast track toward the ridge weakness is shown in the latter part of the track forecast. The track forecast is also adjusted while considering the possiblity of the tropical wave's low pressure spin reforming southwest toward the wave's current field of showers and thunderstorms.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 11)...5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12N-36W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 12)...15% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-41.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 13)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 13.5N-46.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 14)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 15N-51.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0000Z Aug 15)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (east of the Lesser Antilles near 17N-57W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Aug 9) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...moves northwest into the open western Atlantic due to ridge weakness induced by large frontal system...organizes into a tropical low near 30N-55W at 138 hours...tropical low continues north and reaches 32.5N-57W at 168 hours.
1200Z (Aug 9) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown
1800Z (Aug 9) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...tropical cyclone formation suggested near 13.5N-39W at 45 hours... tropical cyclone located near 20.5N-57W at 120 hours.
1800Z (Aug 9) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown