*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY AUGUST 8 2022 3:00 AM EDT...
See area of interest #14 section below for more information on the tropical wave of low pressure currently in the far eastern tropical Atlantic... which is being monitored for signs of tropical development. Elsewhere... an additional tropical wave at 35W longitude showed signs of developing curved thunderstorm bands on Sunday afternoon. However as of late this activity has reduced...become less organized... and has become limited to the south side of the tropical wave due to the dry saharan air layer to the north. Therefore this tropical wave is not being added as an area of interest.
On a final note... the current surface frontal system and its associated upper trough over northwestern North America is expected to emerge into the western Atlantic from the United States east coast in 5 to 7 days. As suggested mainly by some runs of the GFS model... the frontal system may become a focal point for subtropical or tropical development in the waters between Bermuda and the United States east coast during that time frame. Their is some uncertainty as to the state the associated upper trough will be in... a more amplified upper trough closer to the United States east coast would allow the divergent east side of the upper trough to spawn a surface low pressure area without excessively shearing it which would otherwise inhibit tropical development. On the other hand a more offshore and less amplified upper trough would increase wind shear in the region and make conditions more hostile for tropical development. Will hold off on declaring another area of interest for this situation until it is clear which scenario is more likely.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #14 as I designated the other thirteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #14...Over the last 24 hours... the tropical wave of low pressure that has recently exited the west coast of Africa has produced a concentrated thunderstorm cluster located just offshore. This cluster also had signs of rotation on satellite animation on Sunday. Recently this cluster has remained stationary. Even though the 0600Z NHC TAFB surface analysis has not yet been published... I speculate the tropical wave axis has continued westward to 20W longitude as the low clouds on infrared satellite animation suggest the maximum spin of the tropical wave is now on the northwest side of the stationary thunderstorm cluster. The recent struggle of the thunderstorm cluster to continue west with the tropical wave suggests the negative effects of dry saharan air lurking just to the north.
Regarding the track forecast in the outlook below... the tropical wave is shown progressing westward at a typical 5W per day longitude pace while the wave remains steered by the Atlantic surface ridge. The west side of this ridge is expected to weaken in a few days while the current frontal system over northwestern North America advances into the western Atlantic... which will allow this system to bend more north in its westward track by days 4 and 5. Regarding the probability of tropical cyclone formation...the vast tropical upper ridge in the region with low shear and upper outflow... coupled with the above-mentioned thunderstorm cluster suggested an increase in development odds was needed. However given the effect of the dry saharan air also mentioned above... I have only slightly raised my peak 5-day odds of tropical cyclone formation to 30% (this is below the NHC 5-day outlook 40% odds as of this writing).
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 9)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 12.5N-25W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 10)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-30W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 11)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-35W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 12)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 13.5N-40W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 13)...30% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 15N-45W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Aug 7) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown
**Tropical wave currently near 35W longitude maintains a tropical low pressure center through 90 hours...tropical low opens back to a wave while passing 45W longitude at 96 hours
1200Z (Aug 7) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown
0000Z (Aug 8) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...tropical cyclone formation suggested near 10.5N-25W at 30 hours... moves west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic and weakens to a remnant low near 17.5N-51W at 120 hours
1800Z (Aug 7) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown