MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #67
Updated: Aug 8, 2022
*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SUNDAY AUGUST 7 2022 5:30 AM EDT...
See area of interest #14 section below for more information on the tropical wave of low pressure currently heading into the eastern tropical Atlantic from western Africa... which is being monitored for signs of tropical development. It is quiet elsewhere in the Atlantic tropics.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #14 as I designated the other thirteen of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #14...Over the last 24 hours... a tropical wave of low pressure over western Africa is now advancing into the eastern tropical Atlantic. This particular wave continues to be monitored as it has some computer model support suggesting its development as it crosses the eastern and central tropical Atlantic in the days ahead. The tropical wave is expected to continue generally west at a typical 5W longitude per day pace while steered by the vast Atlantic surface ridge. As the current northwestern North America frontal system descends into the western Atlantic... it is expected to weaken the west side of the surface ridge which should allow this tropical wave to bend more north in track by day 5. Upper-level winds are favorable for development as the wave will be under a vast tropical upper ridge with low shear and upper outflow. However going against the tropical wave are the following two factors:
(1) The tropical Atlantic remains under the suppressing sinking motion phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml).
(2) The potential for the tropical wave to ingest dry saharan air lurking just to the north.
The ECMWF model which previously showed this wave developing has backed off as of 0000Z. The NAVGEM and CMC models continue to show limited development of this wave. That leaves the GFS as the only major global model showing the wave becoming a tropical cyclone. The GFS continues to show the wave developing a tightening center of spin in the more favorable thermodynamic conditions to the south (warmer waters... less dry saharan air). Note that in the last day the wave has seen an increase in thunderstorm bands on its west side...and based on the curvature of this activity it appears the center of rotation is further south at 12.5N-15W (as opposed to 14N latitude as of yesterday). Based on these observations... their is an increased chance of the wave avoiding the dry saharan air to the north and I have raised my odds of tropical cyclone formation. However I have only increased my development odds to a maximum of 25% for the next five days due to a recent relaxation in the thunderstorm activity and the ECMWF model pulling out of showing development (this is below the NHC's 40% as of this writing).
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 8)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-20W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 9)...10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (just southwest of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands near 12.5N-25W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 10)...20% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-30W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 11)...25% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-35W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0600Z Aug 12)...25% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 13.5N-40W)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Aug 7) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...tropical wave of interest develops into a broad tropical low near 14.5N-35W at 66 hours... tropical low located near 17.5N-45W at 120 hours.
0000Z (Aug 7) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...tropical wave continues west then west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic... develops into a tropical low near 20N-57.5W at 168 hours
0000Z (Aug 7) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...tropical cyclone formation suggested near 11.5N-30W at 57 hours... located near 18N-44W at 120 hours as a compact potential hurricane.
0000Z (Aug 7) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #14...no development shown