BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #65

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...THURSDAY AUGUST 4 2022 11:55 PM EDT...

The Atlantic tropics are likely to remain generally calm through mid-August as the suppressing sinking motion phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains over the Atlantic basin (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml).


Also note...the GFS model continues to hint at lowering surface pressures in the southern Caribbean Sea within the next three days:

(1) The upper air pattern in the southern Caribbean remains conducive for disturbed weather... as evidenced by a recent concentrated thunderstorm cluster east of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The upper air pattern consists of a southern Caribbean tropical upper ridge and associated upper outflow zone that is able to expand in the wake of weakening upper vorticity in the region. The cold core upper vorticity continues to weaken while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air.

(2) The upper trough currently crossing the open north Atlantic has weakened the western Atlantic mid-latitude upper ridge... allowing for the upper vortex that was north of the Caribbean Islands to drift northward and away. This has allowed for more room for the southern Caribbean upper ridge to expand.

(3) Will declare an area of interest for tropical development in the southern Caribbean in future updates if necessary... any disturbance that develops here is likely to cross Nicaragua and Costa Rica while bringing heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential.


Elsewhere... a surface trough of low pressure persists in the open western Atlantic... now located midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda. The surface trough remains supported by split flow upper divergence between the nearby upper vortex to the east and western Atlantic upper ridge to the north. The shower and thunderstorm associated with the surface trough has however weakened. Therefore it is likely this trough will not have enough time to develop into a tropical area of interest before reaching the southeastern United States coastal region while it continues westward under the influence of the vast Atlantic surface ridge.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Aug 4) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Aug 4) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1800Z (Aug 4) GFS Model Run...

**Tropical low becomes defined on northwest coast of Colombia at 45 hours after which time it begins moving west into the southern Caribbean Sea... loses definition just offshore of Costa Rica just after 75 hours.


1800Z (Aug 4) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)

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