*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY AUGUST 3 2022 7:48 PM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics are likely to remain generally calm through mid-August as the suppressing sinking motion phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains over the Atlantic basin (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). However as outlined below and in the short-term... their are two potential tropical areas of interest that could emerge in the Atlantic basin as follows:
Number one...the GFS model continues to hint at lowering surface pressures in the southern Caribbean Sea within the next four days:
(1) An uptick in scattered thunderstorms in the southern Caribbean continues as upper vorticity in the region continues to weaken while remaining cut-off from high-latitude cold air. The uptick in thunderstorm activity...and potential lowering of surface pressures in the days ahead... is due to the outflow of an upper ridge expanding in the wake of the waning upper vorticity.
(2) The upper trough currently crossing eastern Canada is expected to create a break in the current western Atlantic mid-latitude upper ridge cell. The current upper vortex north of the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands is expected to drift northward and away into the break of the mid-latitude upper ridge...allowing for more room for the southern Caribbean upper ridge cell to expand.
(3) Will declare an area of interest for tropical development in the southern Caribbean in future updates if necessary... any disturbance that develops here is likely to cross Nicarauga and Costa Rica while bringing heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential.
Number two... a surface trough of low pressure has formed in the western Atlantic north of the Caribbean islands and southwest of Bermuda. The surface trough and its associated showers and thunderstorms has formed with the support of split flow upper divergence between the west side of the current upper vortex north of the Virgin Islands/Lesser Antilles and south side of the current western Atalntic mid-latitude upper ridge:
(1) The surface trough is likely to continue west toward the southeastern United States coast over the next couple of days while steered by the robust Atlantic surface ridge.
(2) Although the current east Canada upper trough will create a break in the western Atlantic upper ridge... enough of the upper ridge will remain in the far western Atlantic and offshore of the southeastern United States. The upper ridge will keep wind shear low and upper outflow high... potentially allowing the surface trough to develop in a tropical manner. Will upgrade the surface trough to an area of interest for tropical development in future updates if necessary.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Aug 3) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Aug 3) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Aug 3) GFS Model Run...
**Tropical low becomes defined on northwest coast of Colombia at 69 hours after which time it begins moving west into the southern Caribbean Sea... loses defintion just offshore of Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua just after 96 hours.
1200Z (Aug 3) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)