*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...MONDAY AUGUST 1 2022 10:06 AM EDT...
The Atlantic tropics are likely to remain generally calm through mid-August as the suppressing sinking motion phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has returned to the Atlantic basin (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). However the NAVGEM and GFS models suggest that in a few days surface pressures may lower in the southern Caribbean Sea... potentially making conditions more conducive for tropical development. Currently thunderstorms and low surface pressures in the Caribbean have been suppressed by upper vorticity in the region... however in the 4 to 6 day window the cold core upper vorticity is likely to weaken while remaining cut-off from high latitude cold air. In addition during that time... the upper vorticity is likely to lift northward and away while rounding the southwest side of the current Atlantic mid-latitude upper ridge... and a tropical upper ridge over the southern Caribbean with outflow conducive for thunderstorms and lowering surface pressures could expand in the wake of the retreating and waning upper vorticity.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
0000Z (Aug 1) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Aug 1) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0600Z (Aug 1) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Aug 1) NAVGEM Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)