BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #61

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...SUNDAY JULY 31 2022 6:19 AM EDT...

The Atlantic tropics are likely to remain generally calm through mid-August as the favorable upward motion phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) has shifted eastward and away from the eastern Atlantic region (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). In its place the suppressing sinking motion phase of the MJO is shifting eastward toward the Atlantic. However... models agree their is an opporutnity for tropical development in the southern Caribbean Sea in approximately one week from now. While thunderstorm activity across the Caribbean has been and will continue to be suppressed by upper vorticity rolling southwestward into the region from the central Atlantic (while pushed around by the current mid-latitude western Atlantic upper ridge)... in 5 to 7 days the cold core upper vorticity is likely to weaken while remaining cut-off from high latitude cold air. In addition during that time... the upper vorticity is likely to lift northward and away while rounding the southwest side of the mid-latitude upper ridge... and a tropical upper ridge over the southern Caribbean with supportive outflow could expand in the wake of the retreating and waning upper vorticity.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


0000Z (Jul 31) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


0000Z (Jul 31) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


0000Z (Jul 31) GFS Model Run...

**Tropical low becomes defined in the southern Caribbean near 10N-80W at 153 hours... remains generally stationary in this area through 168 hours.


0000Z (Jul 31) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)

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