*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...SATURDAY JULY 30 2022 2:30 AM EDT...
At present the Atlantic tropics remain calm. However in the longer range... their is an emerging consensus among global computer models that surface pressures in the southern Caribbean could drop which would increase disturbed weather in the region and perhaps make conditions for tropical development more conducive. In the shorter term low surface pressures in the southern Caribbean will be supported by the weakening cold core upper vorticity in the region which has been cut-off from high-latitude cold air... which will allow the warm tropical upper ridge in the region and its associated upper outflow to expand. In 4 to 5 days the potential for supportive upper outflow in the southern Caribbean will be interrupted as the current central Atlantic upper voriticty gets pushed southwest into the region by the current mid-latitude western Atlantic upper ridge. However once this second batch of upper vorticity weakens while also remaining cut-off from cold air... the potential for expanding warm tropical upper ridging and outflow will return to the southern Caribbean in 6 to 7 days.
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jul 29) CMC Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1200Z (Jul 29) ECMWF Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
0000Z (Jul 30) GFS Model Run...
**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)
1800Z (Jul 28) NAVGEM Model Run...
**Tropical low becomes defined in the southern Caribbean just east of Nicaragua at 144 hours... makes landfall in southern Nicaragua at 162 hours.