*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
...WEDNESDAY JULY 27 2022 2:06 AM EDT...
See area of interest #13 section below for an update on the large tropical wave of low pressure currently in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Also note the upward-motion (thunderstorm enhancing) portion of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is now positioned over the eastern tropical Atlantic (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). Therefore will monitor additional tropical waves to emerge into the eastern Atlantic from western Africa for signs of development in the days ahead.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #13 as I designated the other twelve of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #13...The large tropical wave of low pressure in the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to display a pair of gyres. The northern gyre has passed just north of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands and continues to lack thunderstorms while wrapped in the dry saharan air layer. The southern gyre whose center passed near 10N-26W around 0000Z remains the focus of this area of interest.
During the evening hours the southern gyre has lost thunderstorm activity and now apperas as a broad swirl of low clouds... likely while ingesting some of the dry saharan air wrapped up in the nearby northern gyre. However I have not yet discontinued the southern gyre as an area of interest as their remains some shower and thunderstorm activity on its western and southern edges... and also waiting to see if the gyre redevelops thunderstorm activity or not. Regarding the track forecast for the southern gyre feature... I have adjusted the track forecast based on its initial position relative to the previous forecast. Otherwise the track forecast philosophy remains the same... which shows the southern gyre entangled in a fujiwhara-type interaction with the northern gyre now accelerating westward while steered by the vast Atlantic surface ridge. As such... the track forecast for the southern gyre of interest in the outlook below is initially slow to the west-northwest as the northern gyre passes by to the north...followed by an eventual rapid west-northwest motion as the southern gyre chases the northern gyre. The north angle in track... induced by the fujiwhara interaction... is likely to bring the southern gyre eventually into the dry saharan air layer... which is why I drop odds of tropical cyclone formation to 0% by 72 hours. I have also lowered shorter term odds of tropical cyclone formation to 5% to acknowledge the recent loss in thunderstorm activity noted above.
******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 28)... 5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 11.5N-30W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 29)... 5% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 13.5N-38.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 30)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 14.8N-46.5WW)
...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...
Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)
1200Z (Jul 26) CMC Model Run...
**For area of interest #13...no development shown
1200Z (Jul 26) ECMWF Model Run...
**For area of interest #13...no development shown
1800Z (Jul 26) GFS Model Run...
**For area of interest #13...no development shown
1800Z (Jul 26) NAVGEM Model Run...
**For area of interest #13...no development shown