BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #56

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...TUEDSAY JULY 26 2022 1:16 AM EDT...

The large tropical wave of low pressure that was over western Africa is now entering the eastern tropical Atlantic. An organized spin appears to have developed on the south side of the large wave and well south of the Republic of Cabo Verde Islands... see area of interest #13 section below for more information.


In addition... the upward-motion (thunderstorm enhancing) portion of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is shifting east into the Atlantic basin (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). Therefore over the next several days... conditions in the tropical Atlantic may be more conducive for tropical cyclone development.


New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current area of interest in this blog post is designated #13 as I designated the other twelve of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.


AREA OF INTEREST #13...A large tropical wave of low pressure has spent the last 24 hours sliding into the far eastern tropical Atlantic from western Africa. Over the last several hours the tropical wave appears to have developed two gyres... one to the north just offshore of Mauritania lacking thunderstorms while wrapped in the dry saharan air layer... and one to the south near 8.8N-22W. Due to the increased organization of the thunderstorms in association with the southern gyre... I have upgraded this gyre to an area of interest for tropical development. This marks the thirteenth Atlantic tropical area of interest I have monitored on this blog this year.


In the short term the southern gyre of low pressure appears protected from the dry saharan air layer in the region due to its far south location and a batch of moisture to the west being generated by the adjacent tropical wave of low pressure to the west. Also favoring the southern gyre is a low shear and upper outflow environment beneath a vast area of tropical upper ridging. While the northern gyre accelerates west across the Atlantic while steered by the vast Atlantic surface ridge... the southern gyre of interest is likely to undergo a fujiwhara-type interaction with the northern gyre. As such... the track forecast for the southern gyre of interest in the outlook below is initially slow to the west-northwest as the northern gyre passes by to the north...followed by an eventual rapid west-northwest motion as the southern gyre chases the northern gyre. The north angle in track... induced by the fujiwhara interaction... is likely to bring the southern gyre eventually into the dry saharan air layer... which is why I drop odds of tropical cyclone formation to 0% by 96 hours. At present I also have low 10% odds of tropical cyclone formation in the shorter term... as the nearby northern gyre contains plenty of dry saharan air that may get ingested into the southern gyre of interest.

******Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for official outlook***********

IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 27)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 9.5N-25W)

IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 28)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 11N-29W)

IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 29)... 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (eastern tropical Atlantic near 12.5N-37.5W)

IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0000Z Jul 30)... 0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central tropical Atlantic near 13.5N-45W)


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Jul 25) CMC Model Run...

**For area of interest #13...no development shown


1200Z (Jul 25) ECMWF Model Run...

**For area of interest #13...no development shown


1800Z (Jul 25) GFS Model Run...

**For area of interest #13...no development shown


1800Z (Jul 25) NAVGEM Model Run...

**For area of interest #13...no development shown

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