BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #55

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...SUNDAY JULY 24 2022 9:40 PM EDT...

Conditions across the tropical Atlantic have remained unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation for the following reasons:

(1) An outbreak of dry saharan air across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.

(2) The configuration of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) for much of July has favored suppressed thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic tropics (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). However the latest data shows the upward-motion (thunderstorm enhancing) portion of the MJO shifting east toward the Atlantic basin. Therefore by August conditions in the tropical Atlantic may be more conducive for tropical cyclone development.

(3) The tropical wave of low pressure currently heading into the eastern tropical Atlantic from western Africa is not expected to develop while tracking westward at a more northern latitude...increasing its exposure to dry saharan air and cooler east-central Atlantic water temperatures in the days ahead.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Jul 24) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Jul 24) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1800Z (Jul 24) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1800Z (Jul 24) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)

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