BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #51

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...THURSDAY JULY 21 2022 2:55 AM EDT...

Conditions in the tropical Atlantic remain generally unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation for the following reasons:

(1) Although vigorous tropical waves of low pressure... originating from Africa... are crossing the eastern and central tropical Atlantic in an environment of low shear and upper outflow beneath a tropical upper ridge... an outbreak of dry saharan air is suppressing thunderstorm activity in the region.

(2) A warm upper ridge in the mid-latitudes of the western Atlantic is expanding... which has pushed upper vorticity southward into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico regions. This upper vorticity has increased the westerly wind shear and decreased upper outflow needed for thunderstorms over these regions.

(3) The current configuration of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) for much of July has favored suppressed thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic tropics (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml). Once the upward-motion (thunderstorm enhancing) portion of the MJO shifts east toward the Atlantic basin from the Pacific over the next several days... conditions for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic basin will likely become more conducive.


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Jul 20) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Jul 20) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


0000Z (Jul 21) GFS Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1800Z (Jul 20) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)

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