BIRDSEYE VIEW POSTS

Since 2012 on the now retired Weather Underground blogs, I have been posting annotated "birdseye view" charts of the Atlantic basin, with a detailed explanation and forecasting that references the chart. From there you may know me as "NCHurricane2009." While I now do these "birdseye view" posts here, I will continue to do comments at Yale Climate Connections via Disqus where the former Weather Underground community has moved to. Feel free to reply to me there, at my Disqus feed at this link, or via e-mail at IOHurricanes@outlook.com 

 
 
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MY 2022 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON BIRDSEYE VIEW POST #50

*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********


...TUESDAY JULY 19 2022 11:59 PM EDT...

Resuming the regular daily pace of birdseye view posts as I have returned from vacation.


Although a vigorous tropical wave of low pressure is currently in the eastern tropical Atlantic is underneath a tropical upper ridge with low shear and upper outflow... it is not showing signs of development while its thunderstorm activity is largely suppressed by dry saharan air. In addition the current configuration of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) for much of July has favored suppressed thunderstorm activity in the Atlantic tropics (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml).


...COMPUTER MODEL SUMMARY...

Source...Florida State University Experimental Forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/)


1200Z (Jul 19) CMC Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1200Z (Jul 19) ECMWF Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)


1800Z (Jul 19) GFS Model Run...

**Eastern Atlantic tropical wave organizes into a tropical low near 11.2N-29.5W by 168 hours (7 days)


1800Z (Jul 19) NAVGEM Model Run...

**No tropical cyclone formation forecast for the Atlantic basin for the next 168 hours (7 days)

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