*******Note that forecasts and outlooks in this post are NOT the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). They are my own detailed views on the Atlantic tropics based on current observations and latest computer model runs. As such do not make decisions based on my posts...consult news media...watches and warnings from your local weather office...and any evacuation orders issued by local governments to make the most informed and best decisions. Visit the NHC website hurricanes.gov (hurricanes dot gov) for the latest watches/warnings and official forecasts on active tropical cyclones.**********
…UPDATE… THURSDAY JULY 14 2022 11:00 AM EDT...
The ECMWF model no longer predicts tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico… the associated area of interest is cancelled.
...TUESDAY JULY 12 2022 6:30 AM EDT...
The following is a special update while I am on vacation… concerning an area of interest for tropical development heading toward the northern Gulf of Mexico from the mainland United States. See area of interest #12 section below for more information.
New to this site this year... I will be sequentially numbering up areas of interest for possible Atlantic tropical development. In this scheme... will reset back to #1 at the start of next year (January 2023). The current areas of interest in this blog post is designated #12 as I designated the other eleven of this year in previous birdseye view posts on the home page. This scheme is to reduce confusion as Atlantic tropical activity increases during the peak of the hurricane season... when multiple simultaneous areas of interest begin and end which previously required shuffling around the area of interest numbers from update to update.
AREA OF INTEREST #12…Infrared satellite image as of 0750Z:
Included in the above satellite image is a simplified version of today’s 0000Z NHC TAFB surface analysis. Blue and red lines show surface fronts… red L indicates surface low pressure and blue H indicates surface high pressure (ridge). Orange is upper-level analysis with arrows showing upper-level wind direction… L indicating an upper vortex… and a dashed line indicating the axis of an upper trough.
Within the last couple of days the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in their tropical weather outlook has added an area of interest for tropical development in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This is likely due to the usually conservative ECMWF model which is currently forecasting development in the region in a few days. This marks the twelfth area of interest for Atlantic tropical development I am tracking on this blog this year.
While there is currently a stalled surface front along the US Gulf coastal region…. the trigger for development in the last few ECMWF model runs appears to be the cold front located further north over the heart of the central US. Specifically as a warm air mass and associated upper ridge builds over the western US… the upper ridge is forecast to push the tail end of the central US front and its upper trough southward toward the northern Gulf of Mexico. The models disagree on the positioning of the decaying upper vorticity to be associated with the remnants of the upper trough… for example the GFS shows the upper vorticity covering much of the northern Gulf of Mexico in 4 to 5 days and thus suppressing upper outflow needed for tropical development. The ECMWF shows a smaller pocket of upper vorticity in the northwest corner of the Gulf… with divergence on the east side of the pocket helping to trigger tropical development along the tail end of the surface front arriving from the central US. Given the ECMWF model is the only major global model showing development… I only assign a low 10% peak odds of tropical cyclone formation for the next five days (this is lower than the NHC as of this writing where peak odds are 30%).
Regardless of tropical cyclone formation or not… there is a possibility of heavy rainfall with flash flooding potential for coastal Louisiana… Mississippi… and Alabama for Friday and this weekend. I will remain on vacation through this time… visit the NHC website hurricanes dot gov for up to the minute latest information on this situation.
****** Infohurricanes.com outlook. Visit hurricanes dot gov for official outlook ***********
IOH 24 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 13)…0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (central Arkansas near 34.5N-93.5W)
IOH 48 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 14)…0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Louisiana/Arkansas border near 32.5N-93.5W)
IOH 72 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 15)…0% chance of tropical cyclone formation (Louisiana/Mississippi border near 31.5N-91.5W)
IOH 96 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 16)…10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeast coast of Louisiana near 29N-90.5W)
IOH 120 Hr Outlook (0600Z Jul 17)… 10% chance of tropical cyclone formation (southeast coast of Louisiana near 29N-90.5W)